Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Watevs]

Talking about US death rates As if they are anything significant seems silly when it hasn’t been here that long

I just read about two 29 year olds that died and it seems like a lot of people need hospitalization

Pretty unreal that Vegas hasn’t closed any casinos. The mayor is obv in the pocket of big business

[Churchill]

general consenus is it can takes up to 4 weeks to kill, so it’s been in the US a good while when you consider the date of the first (recorded) death to COVID-19.

Old peeps in Washington State Nursing Home home being resusitated / dying on the more than regular since mid Feb 2020 for example

US is / was an 7 hour flight from Italy

[anon38180840]

@simplicitus

@Danspartan

Think about it. Electing Donald could kill more Americans than the roughly 1.35 million lost in ALL the wars in hour history combined (civil war was about 1/2 of the total).

Something I’ve considered with Trump is that the military budget has to be worth like 1/4 it’s value while he’s commander in chief.

It’s like having a not that good high school freshman as QB of an NFL tram.

…and spending top dollars of the cap on three All-Pro receivers and an elite tight end.

[Huehuecoyotl]

Our flu like admits have doubled since the beginning of the month when it should be decreasing.

[anon38180840]

@TheHip41

@suzzer99

Yes, children under the age of 15 or so do appear to be fine without treatment.

But once you get over 20 and even more so after 30, a significant percentage will develop serious pneumonia and will die without intensive medical treatment that is often lasting up to 3 weeks.

However, those under 50 that get intensive treatment usually make good recovery.

In both Wuhan and now in Italy the death rate for the younger patients went up as hospitals were overwhelmed.

You should multiply our confirmed cases and confirmed deaths by at least 5 to get close to true numbers.

More like 8 imo, but we don’t know how good of a job Spain did as far as testing. What do we need to multiply our numbers by to make the comparison? I have no idea. Is it 1.2? 2? 5? 10? If it’s closer to the low end we likely did containment stuff earlier than they did. If it’s closer to 8-10, we’re fucked.

I think we have a shot here. I thought my post was encouraging. My research took me from thinking there was no shot and at least four major US cities would be turning patients away to thinking we have a chance to keep the curve flat enough everywhere here.

[Coasterbrad]

Rivers casino in Philly is closing for 14 days starting tomorrow. I have to imagine that all casinos will follow suit shortly, but they really do put profit ahead of employee and customer safety so who knows.

[anon38180840]

@j8i3h289dn3x7

@ViridianDreams

FWIW, I didn’t interpret her post as moralizing or being intentionally rude/ugly to people. Seemed like she was offering constructive criticism, and trying to help, in her own way. It may have come across differently than she intended due to the language barrier. I think you all are overreacting to her post.

Like, given the number of posters here’s there is a chance that not everyone on this board survives this and this fucking poster is yelling at us because there are other problems in the world and we’re being selfish. And I get that from not just her one post but also the context of her previous posts in this thread.

One of us dying is a likelihood, not a low probability event. I don’t know everyone’s age, but even if we were all mostly low risk we’d have a mathematical expectation of losing probably multiple people if this matches WHO projections on the rate of spread.

[LodenPants]

@Watevs

Pretty unreal that Vegas hasn’t closed any casinos. The mayor is obv in the pocket of big business

Also, fire hot

[Jalfrezi]

We’ve all got to go sometime.

[anon10387340]

@simplicitus

There are ways to express that viewpoint without going at someone personally.

You mean the way you cooled things down by calling somebody a toxic asshole? (Or something like that, I’m not going back to find it.)

[anon38180840]

@JordanIB

Latest USA number I saw was 50 deaths out of 2340 cases, or a 2.1% mortality rate.

I understand why this number is probably meaningless. But, given the lack of testing, and the rationing of testing to the worst off, wouldn’t that suggest that there are far, far more people with the virus (the denominator), than there are people dying from it without us knowing it’s from coronavirus (the numerator)? Thus, a much lower mortality rate?

Certainly there’s a lag in deaths as it takes time for the virus to kill, but my thinking had me hopeful. I’m sure someone will crush that hope though with thoughtful insight.

Our rate is pretty useless right now since the first place it tore through was a nursing home and somewhere around 25-30 of our deaths were there. But also probably at least that many people died of “flu” and won’t be counted.

I think we’ll end up at 1.5% to 4% when it’s all said and done, but we’ll be at/around 1% on cases that get full access to quality needed medical care. It’ll be higher on the early cases when hospitals are overstressed, and as our doctors learn how to best treat it.

Last I saw, South Korea is at .8%. So 1% is probably our floor.

[j8i3h289dn3x7]

@anon38180840

One of us dying is a likelihood, not a low probability event. I don’t know everyone’s age, but even if we were all mostly low risk we’d have a mathematical expectation of losing probably multiple people if this matches WHO projections on the rate of spread.

Yeah I was trying to be less dark. I don’t disagree with your analysis.

[ViridianDreams]

@anon38180840

@j8i3h289dn3x7

@ViridianDreams

FWIW, I didn’t interpret her post as moralizing or being intentionally rude/ugly to people. Seemed like she was offering constructive criticism, and trying to help, in her own way. It may have come across differently than she intended due to the language barrier. I think you all are overreacting to her post.

Like, given the number of posters here’s there is a chance that not everyone on this board survives this and this fucking poster is yelling at us because there are other problems in the world and we’re being selfish. And I get that from not just her one post but also the context of her previous posts in this thread.

One of us dying is a likelihood, not a low probability event. I don’t know everyone’s age, but even if we were all mostly low risk we’d have a mathematical expectation of losing probably multiple people if this matches WHO projections on the rate of spread.

Which reminds me, has RenoDoc given us an update recently?

[j8i3h289dn3x7]

@renodoc

[catfacemeowmers]

@Huehuecoyotl

Our flu like admits have doubled since the beginning of the month when it should be decreasing.

That’s concerning, but also I would imagine a lot more people are going to the hospital with actual flu this year than in the past out of concern about corona.

[zikzak]

Based on the projections below, I’d say we’re looking at a coin flip for somebody with a registered account (~375) dying, and an expectation of ~1 for all users.

Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths (Published 2020)

[microbet]

@Watevs

Pretty unreal that Vegas hasn’t closed any casinos. The mayor is obv in the pocket of big business

[clovis8]

Good self assessment tool made by my provincial government

https://myhealth.alberta.ca/Journey/COVID-19/Pages/COVID-Self-Assessment.aspx

[microbet]

Dunno. 0.7% of deaths in China have been people 49 yo or less.

[microbet]

Do you mean Hobbes? It hasn’t been that long since he updated.