Right. And this is the conversation I think we need to be having.
Also, I don’t think we have a solution to what will happen if we don’t lock down and this thing goes completely hogwild on us. We could have a solution to taking care of people in need (to some degree) if we all collectively lock down, but we don’t have the will to do it.
Went to the local Costco last night (Champlain Valley, Vermont).
It was a little less crowded than normal.
The pharmacy had a sign that said that they had sold out of masks, alcohol and hand sanitizer. A few other things were completely sold out (basmati rice and I got the very last box of pasta). It was a little eerie, as I’ve never seen that place completely sell out of a staple item ever.
Toilet paper and paper towels were limit 2. They were available for now, but there was a big empty space in that aisle, so that might sell out too.
Just what is already being done in the US, the cancelled conventions and flights and events and all the secondary effects could knock enough people off health care to kill hundreds.
A Lancet study estimated 500000 extra cancer deaths because of the financial collapse in 2008.
For the record I don’t think the US will be as bad as Italy, but only because there’s a selection bias in choosing Italy as the comparison. Italy is the place where it has happened to take off. The US will be an average of Italy and other random Euro countries like Germany and France where there are a number of cases but it hasn’t gone supernova. Obviously this is just a median prediction. It could go either way.
I would just be happy if the President went on TV with a clear message to his followers about hand-washing, social distancing, and self-isolation for people at risk-groups. You know like any normal sane president (even Pence) would have instantly done in any other non-bonkers timeline…
Actually I assume this is yes, because IIRC the purpose of nose hair is to filter before it enters your body, and the point of nose mucus is to trap things like viruses. I assume it has a negligible effect versus things like washing your hands, though.
I could be wrong, but it seems like Italy has more cases that involve treatable people going untreated due to lack of resources, so those people become more likely to die. We’ve all seen the graph of what an unmitigated pandemic looks like vs one that has been managed so that it has a lower, wider peak.