Regarding the SARS comparisons. SARS was absolutely a big deal. We just got very very very very very lucky. We were a few extra or different flights away from a pandemic.
If this turns into a huge problem in China city centers we can expect pretty massive market issues if they have to shut down the cities for even a small length of time
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Isn’t that just a function of how contagious it is plus if it’s contagious before it’s detectable (which I guess from reports it is)?
Yeah basically I don’t think we know how contagious it is yet
I believe futures start trading at 6 PM EST. Will be interesting to see how the weekend news affects the US futures markets.
I guess I’m going to cancel my plans of touring open-air livestock markets in China.
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The market is/was absolutely not pricing in this last week at least, we should have seen a massive selloff. Would be crazy if this is what finally takes down Trump by massively tanking the stock market/economy
if schools/public spaces close for a few weeks hopefully my netflix stock will go up
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One of the complicating factors I can see happening in China is the potential for the health care workers getting sick. There’s no vaccine for this as far as I know, so they are super-vulnerable. This is likely an illness that is best treated at home for a variety of reasons, not the least of which being the potential exposure to other diseases that linger in a hospital setting.
Also, I agree that secondary illnesses are really what you want to guard against. People who get this may progress to pneumonia or severe dehydration. Many people are trained in CPR. With even a small amount of training, people could learn how to change out IV bags to keep people hydrated. That leaves us with the question of how we can get the IV needles in them in the first place if there’s not enough health care professionals to go around.
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@j8i3h289dn3x7 I think your biggest health risk right now is having a stroke from how much you’re stressing out over this.
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I’ve made sure that I’m safe from stock market crash, runs on banks, housing bubble popping or any similar asset crashes. And, in the event of dystopian collapse I’m pretty sure my garage full of junk will be very valuable.
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End the sentence right here imo
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This is a) novel b) a black swan type thing and c) exponential
All of which suggest the markets are going to be pretty slow in picking it up.
Any suggestions for bets we can make? Or is that kind of macabre
If you think this is going to be a huge deal and the market will react slowly, then maybe short airline stocks? Or really just short stocks in general, if this is a huge deal then we’re almost guaranteed a global recession and broad stock indices would probably fall 30%. You could also buy 30 year US treasuries and gold.
A few pharma companies that are working on a vaccine are up huge, as are a few companies that make face masks
All the big Chinese companies or ones with huge exposure are also getting hit badly, like Luckin Coffee, Alibaba, Wynn resorts
My instinct would be to move toward a much higher allocation in bonds. So basically, people should do the opposite as I have a horrible record with this shit, which is why I just stick around the range of 70/30 to 60/40 and ride everything out.
Hmm. Not sure I have the stomach or the expertise to pull this off. Will stick with my savings account.
I’ve thought of another one.
If booking flights, hotels and holidays for this year, pay a little more for the cancellation option.
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Thankfully our borders close on Friday… And being an Island we should be able to contain the Brexit lunatics
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Oh to be clear I’m doing nothing and sticking to my 100% equities allocation. I’m just saying I think those bets would I think make money if Rugby is right that this is going to be a huge deal and basically cause a global pandemic/panic/recession.
Wish I would have moved my 457 to bonds last week. Too late now