I guess you can disbelieve the data if you want, but inflation has been declining over the last several decades. A colorful chart:
You get roughly the same numbers if you go directly to the data at FRED and calculate them yourself:
I’d do the same thing that I would have done in a world of higher interest rates. You suggested that owning more bonds in retiremnt makes sense in a world of “normal” interest rates, but not in a world of low interest rates. My point was that I don’t think your preferred bond/equity allocation should change just because nominal bond rates are low because the variation in nominal interest rates is largely reflecting variation in inflation, so it all nets out.
Assuming that you’d be working from home if it got really bad in Manhattan, live in a relatively new building, and would be able to not leave home for a couple weeks… I would imagine the trip is worse because of the recycled air and the mixing of people from all over - if they’re even still open.
I could see us getting a little dead cat bounce here, but I think we all pretty much agree there will be widespread cases in the US, and when that news comes and/or local governments are declaring state of emergencies and urging (or forcing) people to lock down at home, I think we drop at least another 10% or so.
There is obviously the perennial bond vs equities argument, but that has nothing to do with approaching retirement.
The primary concern of retirees is affording their chosen lifestyle and the secondary concern maintaining this over the long term. I would maintain that this is easier to manage in a time of higher interest rates where capital is eroded by inflation than in a time of low interest rates where capital is eroded by spending it on day to day expenses.
Agreed. This is a fucking grotesque conversation to be having here, the thread where I’m accused of downplaying the importance of the expected death tally.
Right so Pence is in charge of it, which really just means he’s managing the political fallout and making sure nobody who actually knows what they’re talking about says anything to contradict dear leader or make him look stupid or to blame.
I actually said to a buddy, I wonder what odds I could get on a different VP on the ticket because there seems to be a pretty high likelihood of catastrophe here and Pence is lined up to be the fall guy. Apparently others had the same thought, he’s dropped from 88c to 77c in a day to be the VP nominee.
Well like 90% of my expenditures (housing, gas, healthcare, utilities, auto care, auto insurance, travel, food) keep going up. But at least I can console myself that technically inflation is going down. Too bad I don’t buy a flat screen TV every 6 months or I’d appreciate it more.
