This is the thread for BOLD 2022 Senate Predictions. This is not for BORING Senate Predictions. BOLD Predictions only.
I’ll get this party started:
Alaska?
That’s why it’s BOLD. Alaska has a weird ranked choice election with 2 magaderps running against Murkowski and one Dem. Conventional Wisdom is the dems voters will pick Murkowski as their second choice and she will win, or the mangas will pick Murkowski over the dem and she will win. But what if the magaderps hate Murkowski so much because she voted to impeach Trump that they pick the dem as their third choice after both maga candidates are defeated?
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Pelosi takes an L
Insurrection 2.0 works and Dems never seat their majority
In a yet to be announced Senate run? That’s bold, indeed.
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With boldness I always lean towards 53-47 in repubs favour because waaf and I’ll never accept hope/positive news until the results are actually confirmed!
Submit your BOLD 53-47 republican majority map.
Fuck me I meant Feinstein and she isnt running til 2024. I withdraw everythinf
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What is a mega blue wave? 54-46?
Yeah did this with AZ, GA, NV. So 52-48 would be my not super bold pessimistic prediction.
Edited- meant NV instead of NM lol so listed that twice initially
55 is the most I can conceivably come up with. Jman’s map minus AK plus NC/OH/FL. Obviously that is never happening though.
FL and NC truly hopeless so 53 max. They might actually get some shit done with that but obviously requires holding the house which just no way because lol Dems on redistricting.
In a world where they get 53 senate seats, I think they also hold the house
OH is more hopeless than NC imo. FL never in a million years obviously.
Those are the only ones I can come up with that have greater than 1% chances for a Dem win although I agree those are never happening. In a true mega blue wave though maybe it’s possible to bink NC. I would assume FL is pretty close to impossible.
i think oh isn’t completely lost. i would give action at ryan +200
A lot of this is going to depend on where we are in November. If stonks go back up and inflation (food and gas prices) slows and the economy is still in ok shape I think Dems would be in a pretty good positions actually. Inflation continues to go nuts, the stock market or economy stumbles or any number of other bad things happen between now and then it is going to be a slaughter.
The trajectory right now is pretty good compared to most of the last year or so imo.
yeah next 3 months are going to be crazy good for sectors lead by us gas. LNG exports to europe are hitting highs in percentages and commodity price is going back where it was during obama. residential gas is still stable, and although it will probably change, it is unlikely to rise like european prices. that’s a pretty big boost for short term economies