The Republican gets under 50% in at least one of OH/FL/NC.
BOLD
It’s more likely they would only rank two choices and have an exhausted ballot if it goes to the third round.
I didn’t say my prediction was likely. But there’s a chance.
Feinstein could take an L this year, but it’d be the biggest L of her life.
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It’s very unlikely because Murkowski is popular enough to have a shot at winning outright on the first round. Dems probably have a better shot at a miracle in Iowa.
Charles Booker will lose to Rand Paul, but not at the margin Amy McGrath lost to Moscow Mitch even though Booker spent nothing close to McGrath. Democrats will learn their lesson from this
(I actually believe sentence one, but not sentence two)
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not fielding a candidate at all, even in the most hopeless race, seems like a huge leak. like take the bare-minimum campaign staff, and flood social media with the party message on what they are going to do about women’s choice, healthcare, voters rights, unions, and education. it’s not so much a freeroll, as an opportunity to get coverage.
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Murkowski losing to the dem in Alaska not looking quite as BOLD as it was yesterday.
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My bold map, where most of the Trumpy assholes win.
Fetterman flips PA, but every other tossup goes red. Colorado barely hangs on, and even Washington and Oregon are within 3 points.
This sets the stage for Republicans to have 60 senators in 2025.
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BOLD
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Putting this in here now. I think New York is going to have a Republican Governor next year and a Republican Senate. Trifecta is probably not in play though.
My BOLD prediction is Dems lose every “competitive race.” NV is hopeless, OH is hopeless, WI is hopeless, FL is hopeless, PA is like 25%. This will set up a filibuster proof GOP majority in 2024. Happy Saturday
This doesn’t even seem like a bold map anymore.
We probably have about a 15% chance of the actual outcome being worse than this.
Way more than 15 percent chance that we ahve this map and lose PA given systemic correlation between races. The less than 15 percent chances are we have this map, lose PA, and lose one or more of:
- Colorado;
- Washington;
- Oregon.