Even a few months ago.
Have to amend above, convicted but sentenced to no jail (in the business records case) is a strong possibility as well
Same with Michelle Obama. If Joe keels over tomorrow, the list of replacements is 2 in my mind, Kamala or Newsom, and nobody wants Kamala running.
You think you just fell out of a coconut tree? You exist in the context of all in which you live and what came before you
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What happens in the event they cannot run or drop out due to illness or death? Is bet nullified or would it be a loser?
Loser
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grunching: its likely going to come down to 50k votes in a few key swing states and anybody who says they know for a fact which side will win is bullshitting.
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And even if itās Bush/Gore levels of closeness, people who guessed right will be posting about how they knew it was a slam dunk all along and all the people thinking otherwise were idiots.
This would probably be true even if Dems ran the best possible candidate (which might be Biden).
yep, its like saying i knew the 49ers were going to muff that punt and allow the Chiefs to comeback and win. like no you didnāt, if they played 100 times the chiefs would win close to 50 and 49ers would win close to 50, you won a literal coin flip but had no edge whatsoever.
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It has been 8 years since Trump won. thatās a lot of MAGA voters who passed away.
Lots of young voters are into fascism now though so theyāve got a lot of replacements 
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i guess over 65 was only 52-45 trump in 2020ā¦ for some reason i thought it was much higher.
Yeah Iāve never been the type to just assume pure demographic shift would do much, but like, it has to be a net positive for Democrats right? For every day that X number of boomers die, and Y number of kids hit voting age (or just age into where they finally plan on voting in a presidential election for the first time), there has to be a tiny shift overall in the Democratsā favorā¦right? Right, Anakin?
I mean I know disturbingly too many young voters are totally cool with the fascism, but it sure as hell canāt be the majority of them.
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Iām not saying it might not be close, but Trump needs to win 57% of the time to give -130 and I just donāt see that as being a good number
What reason are there to think Trump should be a favorite? I can think of a few. Bidenās handling of Israel, his age, and collective amnesia from Trumpās first term. Still doesnāt justify -130 odds imo
In theory I agree the demographic shift should be a net positive for the Dems but in practiceā¦ weāll see. Trumpās a slight favorite because heās leading in every single swing state poll and the vast majority of the national polls as well. Thatās not to say that canāt change as we close in on election day but Iād be very wary of all of these poll truthers saying they are inaccurate and they donāt matter. Very strong unskewedpolls dot com vibes there.
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It definitely isnāt, but the ones that arenāt cool with the fascism arenāt exactly inspired by the Dems so good luck getting them to vote
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It makes sense he lost a lot of older votes when you consider that
- lots of his older voters died of COVID and
- he was saying that they should die of COVID for the economy
Iām sure the surviving olds will come home to roost this time around.
Is it that theyāre cool with fascism, or they just donāt think it will affect them? Thatās my biggest question to anyone voting for Trump
Itās a freeroll for them. Either status quo or fascism where they know they wonāt be the oppressed group.
And of course the delicious delicious liberal tears that would flow. Totally worth destroying democracy over.
My sons not a fascist but heās ādad is a liberalā so heās vote is mainly āfuck you no nothing dadā. And we donāt really have any issues just what kid doesnāt want to āyeah fuck you no nothing dad?ā
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