I’m confused by your question. Most voters don’t know anything about anything. When I say that people default to “vote for lower taxes” I obviously don’t mean that they are all taxation experts. Most of them couldn’t calculate their effective tax rate if their lives depended on it. But they “know” that they hate taxes and they “know” that Republicans will cut their taxes. What shakes voters off of this natural preference is if Dems offer them something tangilble to fulfill an urgent need. Coming out of the pandemic people were desperate for some kind of return to stability in their lives, and Biden is the embodiment of “return to normal”. Dems need to identify that desperate need and fulfill it.
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fyp
I’m not sure that will solve this problem:
https://x.com/charles_gaba/status/1756088583402721586?s=20
Because their algorithm will still leave candidates in red districts out in the cold. The trouble is, flipping districts takes years, decades even, and no one wants to donate just to lay the groundwork for a future flip They want to flip things NOW.
This is a huge issue that Democrats have. our party and our institutions steer everything toward “swing” seats, starving the candidates running in rural and red districts. No wonder no one wants to run for those seats. I can tell you first hand how difficult it is to get donors and voters and the party and activists to care about a Dem running in R+10 district.
They all pat you on the back and say shit like “we are SO grateful you’re running!” but when the rubber meets the road and it’s time to donate or volunteer they are nowhere to be found.
Then afterward, when the Dem loses then tries to run for something else, the chattering class just calls them a “failed candidate” and the cycle begins again.
Notice: you never see a seat left unchallenged by a republican, no matter how blue the district.
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Now I’m even more confused. But I got into the edibles so its probably best to move on for everyone.
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I don’t think this is true. Like abortion it is just the very loud minority setting the public agenda.
I bet if you polled immigration and illegal immigration separately you would get very different results
Is anyone in favour of illegal immigration, on either side?
The laws are awful and need changing so I guess in the civil disobedience sense I am in favour of it but generally isn’t the lefts position that there should be more legal immigration.
The public or ruling class?
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Fair obviously based on recent action the republicans do favour it for political expediency.
I’m not even talking about politics.
Illegal immigration is big business now
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Also fair but I think my point still stands in terms of the “median American” I was responding to.
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Yeah many business owners love illegal immigration.
No better way to keep wages down for everyone.
It’s all about comforting narratives for these people. In the political narrative world, lots of business owners will rant about illegal immigrants gaming the system and taking advantage of hard working self made go getters like them. This feels good, it gives them the sensation of being on the moral high ground and allows them to feel superior. Meantime in the actual real world, they depend entirely on cheap illegal immigrant labor to get rich from their “self made” businesses. Nobody gives a shit about logical consistency when whipping up fictional narratives about their lives so that they can feel superior. Recognizing this as a key feature of contemporary conservative politics is absolutely essential.
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Last I read the detention centers at the border were mainly run by private companies as well. That might of changed in the last 5 years
Well the most recent episode of the 538 podcast effectively snuffed any remaining embers of hope that Trump wont win the election. Biden is doing poorly in every version of every poll question in every demographic.
You just can’t lol America enough.
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If you gave me the choice of being able to hand pick my federal and state electeds vs. city and county, I’m going with the former every time and I think that’s totally rational. The state and federal government impact the big ticket items in my life (healthcare, retirement, higher education, labor rights).
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The main thing 538 has taught me is that answering poll questions isn’t the same as voting.
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Any way to go back and compare polls at this time of year to end results of elections? That might be something to look into. No idea how accurate 9 month out polls tend to be.
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I think this is something we still don’t understand very well.
There is definitely a huge inherent selection bias to the character trait “Responds to Political Polls” that affects the results.
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Yes, and with how the last few rounds of elections have gone I’m not immediately going full were fucked mode in the 2024 election. We just don’t know and polls are dumb.
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