Funny you should ask, I just did. My methodology probably is suspect but here we go. (I looked for the last five polls released at around Feb 11th of each election year and compared to results. Mind you this is national polls, and only 5 polls, and I didn’t adjust for pollster bias)
(Year-Feb results, actual, swing)
2020-2.4% Biden, 4.5% Biden, 2% Dem Gain
2016-2.4% Hilary, 2.1% Hillary, .3% Dem Loss
2012-5.8% Obama, 3.9% Obama, 1.9% Dem Loss
2008-4.8% Obama, 7.2% Obama, 2.4% Dem Gain
2004-2.8% Kerry, 2.4% Bush, 5.2% Dem Loss
So, best ever swing for a Dem is 2.4% worst is -5.2%. If we give Biden +2.4% on the average of the last 5 538 National polls, Trump by 1%.
It is, given the information you have. But the way politics and government ACTUALLY work is that your city and county and state officials are the ones who implement those policies. Everything you listed requires at least state government buy-in to function, some of them down to the local level.
A great example is housing and homelessness. If your city council isn’t on board with a state law about zoning, for example, then literally nothing about housing or homelessness is ever going to change.
Also, the way all those federal and state budgets actually get spent is because your local elected officials have to ask for it. If your school needs a new roof, the school board has to vote on it, then they have to ask the state for help, or work with the county to get a bond measure going, etc. So if the people you don’t bother to care about who get elected to school board are complete bozos, then your school ain’t getting a new roof. They might have some library books banned, though!
Super Tuesday hadn’t happened in any of the contested primaries at this point, so Biden couldn’t realistically poll anything accurate in 2020 at this time and Biden wasn’t anywhere near considered contention at this point. In 2020, the GOP was a solid favorite to run everything 6 days after the impeachment trial acquittal and they were stomping around like they believed it. Then, Covid happened, even though the Senate knew Covid was gonna happen and that Trump was already messing it up badly before the acquittal vote. They just hoped it wouldn’t turn into anything serious (lol).
Right now, everything in polling is meaningless and those who self-select to answer polls are getting more unrealistic over time not more realistic. Again, this is all meaningless because all these polls keep forgetting that no matter how much Democrats hate Biden and his running as an old man, they will vote for him. It’s more important to look at Trump’s overall than his, especially since Biden’s polling with Democrats is so low. You think they’re voting for Trump because they don’t like Biden? Nah.
We can’t pretend to know what will happen over the next 9 months, but I’m pretty confident it won’t be Trump climbing up to a landslide percentage win. I am also confident the GOP will do more stupid things to shoot themselves in the foot like they did in 2020, when they hypothetically had a cakewalk to win in 2020 as of ‘today’ in that election. Trump should have won that election in a landslide with a ‘gift’ like Covid, but…he’s a moron. And I know this will come as a shock to everyone, but the stuff he says now is even more stupid than what he said then.
The counterpoint to that is that (I think) a lot of us live where the local governments are reasonably functional.
Speaking for myself, pretty much everyone at the local and state level is no worse than half a standard deviation from what I want (Phil Scott being the exception and even he isn’t super terrible).
If I could wave my magic wand in November and put who I wanted in either:
A) The White House
B) Every other contest that I’m voting on that ballot
I’m taking option A and it’s not even remotely close.
Not sure if I’m interpreting your post correctly, but is the implication that I don’t understand how government works, and that’s why I think federal and state politics are more important to my life than local?
agree but the most deadly one is his job approval. There is no historical precedent for winning reelection with such a low job approval and I can’t see any way he gets it to rise given the current landscape.
Like you’re reading the wrong news articles if you think there’s any USAian oasis from the exact reasons for 2020 protests, even in Seattle or Portland
