I saw Goldschmidt hasn’t hit a lick lately, and Gorman has been on fire, so obviously went with Gorman.
:Barf:
pick rate doesn’t matter at all, all that matters is roi
as mentioned by JohnnyA, that sample size is way too small, especially as you increase volume because you can go on crazy heaters or downswings. for example, This month I’ve made around 1k bets and I had my best ever week followed two weeks later by my worst ever.
Some decent choices today around the +500/600 range.
Strike rate is critical here.
If you’re coin flipping, 200 bets is plenty to tell if you have a sustainable win rate.
At the other end of the spectrum I had a horse race system with a 12% strike rate that needed thousands of bets.
ceasars had a profit boost on dingers today to compete with fanduel I guess
I hit both hahahahahaha
(didn’t end up great on fanduel though, took a few too many)
dinger tuesday still going even if it’s not as fun anymore
my bet rivers picked dingered too (not so great insurance though, weak promo but whatever) darn line shopping instead of just taking those for fanduel too I guess
oh ffs
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down to $10 on DK’s team goes up by 2 and you win promo
real shame, the A’s were crushing this promo
Would be curious how far into the future we have to go until “Would it Dong” factors in stuff like elevation and temperature that make Coors Field unique
Same. Not looking a gift horse in the mouth or anything, but its always a little tilting when a book offers a great promo and then quickly nerfs it like that.
Not sure if anyone is in NJ but mojo ripped off dinger Tuesday with dinger Sundays and it’s amazing. VIP version is $250 and $60/HR
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What is mojo? That sounds amazing.
Sports “stock market” trying to also dabble as a book. A few people in my discord are crushing it. The non vip version is $25/6. I’m in PA so haven’t used yet but in NJ for the weekend so going to try it out. VIP requires $5k deposit and then emailing them
so predictit but sports?
1x2 and spread model bets from ~febuary when i started tracking additional leagues outside of the EPL. used full kelly where 1%=$100 for standardization purposes.
note: if you go to my profile it wont exactly match what you see here for 2 reasons:
- i excluded totals because im not sure they are profitable and if they are not by much. my model excludes penalty data so i was manually adjusting that prediction. ultimately it turned out not to be worth the effort in the end as its something i dont want bet or enjoy betting anyway for various reasons. its also not the purpose of the model anyway.
here is the data for that - i think i ran a little bad, but still the juice aint worth the squeeze, give me double digit roi or give me death
- i was traveling for the last game week of a few leagues, so when i went back ran the numbers and just used the closing lines for the bets - turns out i would of had a monster last game week in ligue 1 - big sad.
ended up being not too shabby.
note:
I basically would run the numbers every thurs (or before midweek games if there were any) and use whatever betstamps best odds were, they almost never fully accurate with what was actually on the books and better prices were almost always available so actual CLV and ROI would probably be a bit larger if they had accurate prices.
Im more risk averse with my actual betting, but its nice to see the model put up similar roi that ive seen historically in just the epl over the past 4-5 years, especially when its just a simple in season xg model.
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It goes for their entire career. So your money is locked up for years.
It’s like predictit in that you have shares and can buy or sell at any time, and these prop markets settle at $1 or $0 (all or nothing is their terms), but the actual “stock market” part I haven’t looked much into.
Anyways first Sunday of doing this i did $250 for every game but the orioles where I had $25 on Santander instead of $250 because I already had $200 on him on FD at better odds. Hit Santander, Walker, Schwarber, Trout for a total of -$424.
Seemed like there weren’t a lot of HRs overall despite a lot of scoring, so I’m lucky I hit on 4. Despite relatively few HRs, I got $1638 in credits for +$1214.
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some gaps have formed in odds to win division on DK/FD like this one
Twins to win division -145 DK
Guardians to win division +240 FD
sure there’s some other shitty teams but this is quite the gap. (ie, guardians +180 on dk) Took the Guardians side alone on this.
Rangers -115 on DK took this also
also parlayed Ohio Guardians/Reds to win division on FD.
right now I have WS Reds/Marlins/Orioles/DBacks/Padres (preseason lol me) Div Reds/Rangers/Guardians/DBacks Playoffs, I’d have to look this up. Worst team White Sox RIP well they do indeed suck like I thought they just aren’t all time suck
I probably have Cubs something somewhere from a promo but bleh I ain’t looking all this up. Reds still +15000 on DK to ship which I think is still too high, this is going to be a solid or better lineup in a crap division. is it going to win? no, did I cash out the O’s last year when I had a chance? no
why do I forget to bet the reds Cruz’s triple and SB prop EVERY SINGLE DAY cause it has to be EV there’s nobody like this rickey henderson speed except he can hit it over the fence. HR gotta check weather but still
He’s going to smash the career record for cycles btw as long as he stays healthy of course
pointsbet sent me an e-mail offer of $50 on will a run be scored in the cubs phillies game
and it wasn’t real for me sad
struck out on dinger tuesday giving up a lot of gains there, and even CZR promo shot me to like $10, well that was fun, moving on I guess.