I’ve been absolutely crushing ATTDs this year so far
If you have DH, manually add superbook as a book, and make a preset for site credit search of only ATTDs using superbook as the book. Superbook is sharp and has two sided market for TDs, so you can use it to immediately see if any lines are off. If it’s an arb to No on superbook it’s almost guaranteed to be bigly EV.
For example, just looked at MNF for the first time doing this, and took a $50 flier on Kyle Juszczyk
+1900 is a big outlier to the rest of the books besides Foxbet and Pointsbet, both of which are very soft on ATTD. Plus almost an arb to superbook no. 23.1% ev using superbook 2 sided lines
Fliff (a “fake money” app sportsbook that lets you use real money and will surely get shut down eventually) has 2 sided lines too and has +870/-1210.
I didn’t hear of fliff till this week, didn’t know you could manually add any book anywhere on that stuff these days, all of them too rigid (obv do not have superbook)
Yeah this is 100% correct, kambi sgp generator applies negative correlation for players on opposing teams. It makes sense why two players on the same team would have negative correlation, but I can’t imagine why such negative correlation would exist for players on opposite teams.
My guy you brought up getting an edge on ATTD plays, this is the edge. It doesn’t matter if it’s incredibly unlikely to hit, if you beat closing value you are golden over time.
So far this year I’ve hit trubisky +1100 and perine +1000, both of which were 200-300 points higher on FD than other books.
Man I may have to subscribe to one of these line comparison seevices, it would save me a lot of time while I am running through all of these DraftKings promos. It’s wild to me that these sportsbooks don’t just do this internally and temp shutdown the market when their lines are so far out of wack with everybody else. I know occasinally this is done on purpose, but I am suprised at how many bad lines there are.
The last two years during out annual buddies trip to the nearest sportsbook I’ve hit on Taysom Hill ATTD and hit on 2+ TDs last year. Yesterday I was so close to hitting the 2 TD again for a near $2k win, they gave Andy Dalton a goal line run play and then Latavius Murray punched it in. Its a running joke in our group now.
Barstool is the worst. Limited me in a matter of days to the point of not being able to bet more than a couple dollars on mainlines, and totally promo banned. But the most egregious is exactly what happened to that guy. If you send a bet for approval they will place a random smaller amount at worse odds. It’s completely bullshit.
Yeah most kambi is like this, the whole review your $200 bet and then accept $22.71, reject the rest, and move the line is just infurating. Parx and unibet are horrible too since they either completely promo ban you or limit you to like 1% so 50 cents on a $50 max boost. Barstool is actually the best kambi book though imo besides maybe betrivers if you have level 7+, tons of good promos and boosts. I ruined P1 using it for like 2% arbs on alt NFL lines, I’ve kept P2 alive for 6 months now and am still able to get $100 down on boosts.
If you haven’t checked it out recently, https://www.crazyninjaodds.com is coming along nicely and should be done in the next month or so hopefully. He got taken out by super bad covid for several months but the site now has a +EV page, low holds, arb, and his calc.
He also has been getting cease and desist letters from oddsjam, which are apparently from some Saul Goodman-esque lawyer saying he stole their code which is hilarious.
Barstool Sportsbook is obviously awful. This is on CS for confirming he would be able to make the bet when obviously that wasn’t the case. With that being said:
The bet was never official. He put it in and it was “pending review”.
Huge lol for thinking you’d be able to bet 10k on a prop like that. Comical.
