Fanduel has 4.5 on the KC/charger spread that’s 4 everywhere else if that matters to some people with unusually big free bets to blow you need to hedge
+100 on no offensive score on first drive
this can be freerolled on fanduel with offensive touchdown and field goal attempt (a FG miss would profit 2 of the 3 bets, everything else either even or up a dollar or something like that) if you match the bets up
edit–what I meant to say is this is super +EV and do not hedge
also more DK promos please
some of you were complaining about having too high of a limit on these but if I’m pretty sure if I could bet the chargers to go up by 7 and hedge the other side at some of your limits I could retire now.
(or the falcons and a few other teams probably)
Some analysis done by a pro gambler acquaintance of mine:
1981-2021 had 10,003 games.
I didn’t get pre-season games but I think I got everything else.
Of those 10,003 games the loser had been leading by 7 points at one point in 2966 of them, or 29.7%
By ten points in only 1338, or 13.4%
He also looked at the data by point spread.
In games where the spread was <= 4 the dog won 43.6% of the time. The “up by 7” bet on the dog would have won 60.4% of the time. The “up by 10” bet on the dog would have won 51.5% of the time
So basically if it’s up by 10 insurance and the point spread is 4 or less, the underdog is a favorite to either win outright or go up by 10 at some point and lose. So it’s a slam dunk +EV bet. But he’s convinced that it’s likely +EV to just hammer all the underdogs. Between last week and tonight we’ve hit 3 moneyline bets we otherwise wouldn’t and are cleaning up. My max bet is $50 unfortunately, but I’m riding every underdog this weekend again.
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Just hammering the dogs was first thing we all thought with no data needed. had a good lol @ using 80’s lines though, those couldn’t have been that good.
Hammering dogs did beat hedge last week a fair bit of that due to the tie. I hedged TNF tonight since I thought the Chiefs would win. I’m a mix on this, some dogs if I like that side, hedge if I like the other side, or just grab the fav if I think the dog is gonna get stomped but if you’re looking for a no brainer strategy, all dogs is probably the highest EV, with hedge being a lower variance option.
I had $250 max on LAC for this game and hedged $300 on KC. Very happy with the result. For Sunday I’m likely going to fire $100 at every underdog unhedged.
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Big night, $1295 on the middle (Chargers DK), +$550 on McKinnon ATTD , +$340 Palmer ATTD, and a few smaller things. Just missed on Carter and Kelce ATTDs for smaller amounts.
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:TrumpDoingThatDanceLikeHesJerkingOffTwoTallGuys:
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For tonight’s FSU/LOUIS game, DK has a profit boost that I believe ranges from 10%-100%.
Tiyon Evans Rushing Yards
o75.5 -114 FD
u83.5 -115 DK
Can freeroll this or close to freeroll if you get better than the 10% boost.
Thanks! Got a 100% boost for this game.
Already used it on Louisville +2.5 though 
More DK 100% boosts today… any CFB bet, any bet on the Canelo/GGG card. Only $50 max but still nice.
Was looking all over for this game until I realized it was last night lol. I have the CFB 100%. Any arb opportunities today?
I did Western KY ML with the 100% boost arbed against Indiana for $25ish profit. Probably better ones out there but I was in a rush.
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I don’t know about arbing, but I see that Iowa is favored by 24 against Nevada. Hard to imagine them scoring 12 safties in one game imo.
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I got 15 on DK this week guys look out
Caleb Williams USC Passing
o300.5 -115 DK
u323.5 -115 BSS/BR
Not sure the exact odds the 100% DK Boost will get you to but should be slight arb with a chance at the middle.
Hit a glitched line on FD last night called out on promoguy discord (also, if you aren’t on this, join it, incredible value for $15/month). They had HT/ft line still up at +900 in the Wyoming game a few mins before half with Wyoming up 10-0. Hit it for $100 and Wyoming won, FD paid out every state but Pennsylvania. Still unsettled but I think they might fuck me
Iirc that happened last year on a mistake line. PA was the one state that didn’t pay out.
if it’s just promoguy I had it and then dropped it cause it sucked (there’s a promoguy EV but I don’t see that in there)
PromoguyMI, evbetsIN, and a few other guys collab. They even have a bot that scrapes OJ. I’ve literally made thousands off like random 2 AM red alerts on FD being off a K on strikeout lines