Riiiiight. Do the books get their lines to match up moreso nowadays just to make sure nobody is getting free monies?!
Here’s my hypothetical betting pattern
$50
$50
$75
$25
On nfl mains and boosts and stuff
$950 on Kent state -3.5
It’s pretty obvious
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Hmm yeahhh, true
If there’s an arbitrage opportunity, at least one line is incorrect. One (or both) of the books will be forced to move their line since so many people are betting it. This means you will end up beating the closing line. Your account will get flagged if a certain % of your bets are beating the closing line.
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Arbing outside of promos is basically dead. I still bet a lot of zero hold lines to generate rewards.
During events like March Madness, are sportsbooks focused on college basketball in a way that makes their lines on other sports less accurate because their attention is elsewhere or is it all quant stuff that runs automatically?
Ya, this. When trying to churn for promos/free bets I now basically wait until a few minutes before the game starts to make sure I don’t beat the closing lines. Its worth losing a few extra bucks betting a worse line to prevent being promo banned or limited imo.
Still lots of money out there but def is drying up compared to months past let alone years.
I think you would have a better chance looking at derivative/prop markets for tourney games that books don’t usually have during the regular season
So far so good. Might use another boost to hedge a guaranteed money back save
I bombed $150 on the 25% boost
Not sure if I should hedge or let the ~$1000 game play out
Thanks for the tip :)
I don’t even sports bet, so this is a dumb question, but why would a site care if you are arbing at another site?
Sigh Kent St getting smoked in the final.
Hedged out to lock in the freewill but sucks to not cash that one in. Conference tourney season has not been kind this year.
If a bettor is only betting in situations that are guaranteed to be profitable for them, in the long run they’re likely to be a net winner at all sportsbooks. Unless you’re incredibly confident that your lines are that good, you don’t want this type of player betting with you as a sportsbook.
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But aren’t people who are arbing are also making other bets too most of the time? Is it just assumed that an arber is +EV and you need to shut him down.
Pretty much this. It’s like a card counter in blackjack.
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I’ve been doing this for a year and I never ever just bet a game
Every bet I make I win EV
If I’m winning. They are losing
It’s like the intent that insider traders use. Who is the victim. There is a victim. The Sportsbook’s. But fuck them
Also. Hedged when Akron got to +135. Glad I did now
Haralabob was on a pod recently and it was the best one he’s ever done imo. He gets into fun stuff about his betting life after the first ~15 min of standard intro/stuff you’ve already heard. Highly recommend.
https://twitter.com/BeBetterBettors/status/1503444648748060678
Running a $200 Bracket Pool through 2p2 for anyone who’s interested.