Betting on Sports

no challenge at all ended up a push

the flea flicker one, it’s just so f’ing rare they do that one in their bag of tricks in the super bowl easy win

no upright/crossbar with no wind on a perfect day was pretty hard for any professional kicker

but only even on the posted bets cause a punter dropped a ball out of nowhere (didn’t bet evenly for the above obviously)–there was one I guess I didn’t post for bovada props, no bored ape nft in an ad. so I got $50, there. Hit OBJ first TD on DK so maybe I did alright idk but I didn’t post that either, darn thought I had actually.

a poor super bowl for me, usually crush the props on these and I did not welp

If you’re in Illinois, these FD lines are way off, no? It seems like they are factoring in Illinois but clearly state bets are void if unquoted team wins. Illinois can’t be included cause of stupid laws.

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Yes, same lines in NY (with Illinois at +110)

This might be a pain if Illini win and they grade the bets as losses. Not sure if it’s worth it.

I’ve got some free bets that I might want to put on some futures markets. I was looking at the 538 NBA model and they currently rate the Celtics as +566 to win the championship. Does that seem plausible? +5000 on some sites

Probably not. Betting markets>>538. Boston has gone on a nice run here, but don’t see a single impressive road win in that time.

The plausibility depends on how much you value net rating as a predictor of future success.

I don’t think +566 is plausible, there’s at least 4 teams in the East I’d rather have, but +5000 seems juicy.

Yeah, obviously I don’t put much stock in public models but the disparity here is pretty crazy. I know that there is some value a lot of the time in those markets too. I put a little money on it, what the hell.

Also, made a small bet on a subway series this year. If it cashes maybe I will go to a game. Prolly would Uber it though.

538 is awful at anything related to sports projections and should be completely ignored.

I wouldn’t say awful at everything. The general soccer ones have been cleaned up a lot since 2010 when the Brazil 50% to win the world cup with the ~7th best squad was routinely mocked

Nba hasn’t been great though. Routinely overrated the Jazz and other regular season teams.

I will say +5000 is probably still a -EV line for the Celtics to win the title, so them arriving at +566 is super damning.

Moritz Seider to win the Calder Trophy (Top Rookie) +350 (FD)
Not the flashiest, but the best.

As far as I can tell, you cannot vote for any awards in NY. There is some legislative restriction on betting specifically at non-athletic competitions. Presumably the voters for the trophies could be tempted by gambling $$$ (unlike our uncorruptable college athletes).

I got this at +800 a few weeks ago. Also have Lundell at +10,000 though so we’re definitely rooting for that.

Nice bet
Couldn’t get on Seider until LRaymond cooled off

Houston making it happen

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They’re in a really good spot now.

SMU plays one fewer game, so tiebreakers are irrelevant. If Houston beats SMU at home on Sunday, they’re 2 losses up. They just need to go 2-2 in their other 4 games to lock it up.

They should be -10 to -11 in the home game.

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Have any of you done your taxes yet and included sports betting profits? Hoo boy is it painful. Good problem to have I guess.

Yes and I paid a lot of money. Enjoy!

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