My bets tonight
Bama ML
Under 52.5
Bolden O 41.5 rec yards
Then those 3 parlayed with Robinson Over 67.5 yards and Robinson to score a TD
think my first limit was by Unibet after i made $100 betting a 4% arb that featured something like the 426th rated mens tennis player against the 729th in a challenger event in india that was at 4am EST
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‘Twas a pretty good sweat.
Over-whelming
In theory it shouldn’t matter if the books adjust the lines properly but it feels like the line doesn’t move as much as it should when you pick non correlated events. I’m sure they all have massive house edges baked in making them garbage bets either way.
DK did a promo weeks back on betting 30 SGPs for some free bets. I went with a simple system on the NBA. Bet the home team to cover. If the home team is favored, bet the over, otherwise bet the under. If betting under, bet the losing teams star under their point total. If going over, bet winning teams star over their points. After 30 SGPs I was up 5 units plus the free bets. YMMV.
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Anyone know the odds for a defensive TD last night? Swear I was going to parlay UGA, the under and defensive TD but it wasn’t an option on DK.
I think UGA D/ST TD was like +365, Bama D/ST TD was like +430. So probably +175 for a D/ST TD overall.
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So one thing I just found out is that Caesars comps sports bets based on “potential winnings” instead of action or vig. Apparently in an effort to dissuade you from taking short odds? Is there actually a good reason for this, or is this just gaming executives being dumb as a box of rocks?
I suppose that a lot of money coming in on short odds could cause larger house downswings if there’s a long delay between underdog wins? But yeah, long run EV is the same, and I wouldn’t expect casinos to really be doing much to reduce variance, if it even has that effect at all. Earlier in the year when I had a ton of $100+ free bets, I hedged the crap out of them at BetMGM so I was placing a lot of $300-$1500 bets on a lot of -250 to -350 odds, and I swear the favorite hit almost every time and I won a ton from BetMGM. Thankfully I got through most of that before they limited me.
I always wondered why they don’t allow short odds on risk free first bets in a lot of cases. It’s better for the player if they bet on long odds, so you would think it would be the other way.
Kinda off-topic, but not really:
Fanduel has a 1 day, 1K refund casino offer. (Losses back in site credit that you have to churn at 20/1)
Strategy?
One 1k bet with best EV and hope you don’t have to deal with playthrough?
Win $1k 48% of the time or churn 1kCredit into ?? ($500)??
Yolo a single hand of baccarat for 1K. The expected loss on 20k of blackjack is only $80. Variance can be high depending on you bet amount, but the ev is there.
In Michigan when I did this the playthrough was only 1x.
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In theory you can keep making +ev bets if you keep winning by doubling your bets if youre comfortable with it. Go like 1k->2k->4k because the 4k bet is still +ev with the loss back. I think this is right. I lost my 1k both times.
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It’s a bit counterintuitive, but if you don’t mind the variance, it’s always more +EV to gamble your whole balance rather than grind out playthrough requirements. Let’s say for the sake of argument I have 7x playthrough requirement on a 1K balance.
If I grind it out betting small, 7K wagered on blackjack at let’s say -0.5%, I lose $35 so EV is $965.
-0.5% EV is 49.75% chance of winning a bet, because if I wager 1K at that I will on average get back 0.4975 * 2000 = 995. So if I bet 1K then 2K then 4K, the probability I will end up with 8K is (0.4975)^3 = 0.123134, so my EV is that multiplied by 8K which is $985.07.
The reason the EV is higher just smashing the balance in is that on the occasions you lose, you are spared further -EV playthrough. You only have to make the full playthrough on the occasions that you win. As I said, if you haven’t seen this result before it’s a bit counterintuitive.
Edit: Blackjack is a bad example here as gambling whole balance is -EV because of lost chances to double/split, but you get the point.
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Yeah, I’ve seen that too, at least one person I know does the playthroughs by just wagering it all on Baccarat until he’s busted or cleared it. I definitely go that route for smaller more regular bonuses where it doesn’t sting if I lose 15 to 20 times in a row.
Does anyone know the best way to do the Caesars $3k bonus?
It appears that it gets credited as $3k in bonus cash, but the terms of service say that any bets will use a cash balance first then use bonus cash. So how do you play through the bonus cash if it means you have to exhaust your cash balance first?
Yeah I used to do it back when I bonus whored, man, it must be like 15+ years ago now. Are the bonuses you guys are talking about open to non-US players? Might get the band back together.
The whole thing is very confusing - and you will get different info from the T&Cs, online help and Reddit. But the way it works is that you just have to conclude the action on $3000 of wagers ($3300 if you also get the $300 new user bonus) and they release the whole amount for withdrawal. You won’t get anything until you playthrough the full 3k. You never actually play the “bonus cash”
You also apparently have only a week after the deposit to clear it all and bets shorter then -300 don’t count.
Betting using the cash balance still counts for playthrough turnover. It’s still the best time and money EV to bet as big as possible, so the question then is just how much variance you want to tolerate.
This Caesars promo is better then any of the old Casino bonuses. You literally just give them 3.3k in action and they give you another 3.3k win or lose. You can just make 66 random $50 bets against the spread and withdraw your remaining 6+ grand. It’s wild. I actually think someone made a mistake with this somewhere.