For sure, that’ll do it. Seems like everybody gets limited on MGM eventually so as long as you were able to extract a decent amount of profit before the limits showed up I’d be happy enough.
In theory, yes, over the long run. In practice it can be very difficult to figure that out in time unless you know the market well or can compare lines from 3 or more books and then get your bet in before the line changes.
I’m limited or outright promo banned at every single kambi book now except for Sugarhouse. Also limited on MGM as well. Its… not ideal. Was grinding to level 7 (VIP level) on BetRivers but I can’t even bet $25 on bowl game moneylines without it being reviewed, so not sure I can ever get there.
Does anyone have opinions on IGT?
This is my preferred “arb” strategy for stuff without huge limits.
Lol, last night I realized that because I am still paying off student loans on one of those income contingent plans, I have to pay an extra 10% vig on gross gambling winnings. I keep forgetting I cannot legally make money gambling for a few years. Great system we have here.
DK with a massive $5k risk free first bet promo for new users valid until 2/13.
Beating the lines without arb Will also get you likited
When I had the 5K offer from Caesars I was only able to lock in about $1500 in guaranteed profit because of how much I’d have to bet on the other side to get the best possible conversion.
I also had a 5K free-bet from DK a few weeks ago that was a pain to convert. I played $1Mil in blackjack for 5K DK cash and a 5K free-bet, ended up $4200 BEFORE the bonuses, that was a good weekend. That weekend accounted for almost 20% of my winnings on the year.
So I’m looking at NBA player futures, and nothing really caught my eye besides the 6th Man of the Year. Odds don’t see to be right imo. Looking at just FD, the players with odds of +11000 or better only add up to 98.65%. Compare this to MVP odds where players with odds of +8000 or better add up to ~110%. This doesn’t even take into consideration line-shopping which would probably reduce the %'s even more.
Herro is the huge favorite at -260. He’s been performing pretty poorly this past month or so from an efficiency standpoint. Admittedly this award usually just goes to the 6th man who has the highest ppg. I think these odds are too high when you factor in how random this season has been at times (COVID + injuries). Here’s a couple of options I like if not taking Herro (Note: To qualify, a player has to play more games coming off the bench vs starting):
Montrezl Harrel +3000 (DK) - Averaging 14/7 Wizards at the moment. Unfortunately, his ppg and mpg has decreased (along with the record of the Wizards. Assuming little, if any, correlation).
Jalen Brunson +3500 (DK) - Averaging 16ppg, and his role significantly increases whenever Doncic is out. Has started nearly half the games he played though. Usually comes off the bench when Doncic plays so would think he goes back to the bench soon.
Jordan Poole +6000 (FD) - Averaging 18ppg on one of the best teams in the league. This is a very risky pick as he has started in 28 of the 30 games played so far. GSW has 46 games remaining. For Poole to qualify, he would have to come off the bench in 37 of those games. The catch here is that Klay is supposed to return in the next few games. Not sure when exactly he starts, and what Poole’s role will be at that time. Need to recognize that this bet might have zero chance of winning depending on that.
Anfernee Simons +15000 (DK) - Averaging 12.9ppg, and has been awful the past month or so. Had a career game against the Hawks two days ago (43 points). The reason for making this bet has to do with Portland possibly trading Dame or CJ prior to the trade deadline. I assume Simons will have an increased role if that happens. In the rare scenario where Portland trades Dame, I think his volume will skyrocket as at that point Portland will start tanking.
Let me know if any other players stand out for you guys. Not putting any major money on this, but could be a fun sweat.
Simons is only doing anything so far when CJ/lillard aren’t there
but if they traded one, then he’d start so idk how he’d qualify for 6th man with that.
Herro didn’t start tonight but played 36 minutes before getting tossed, I don’t get it might as well start him if butler’s out.
Poole will come off the bench but probably won’t get much in minutes if Klay can go.
Brunson started with Luka tonight and they don’t overlap so I think they both can start and Brunson’s played well enough to do so.
so I don’t know either in other words.
Love’s had some good games on the cavs lately.
FWIW it looks like they can go live in NY as early as Saturday morning… have to imagine the big players will all be launching then.
Yes looks like four sites will open up tomorrow morning. Despite my reservations about the tax situation noted above, you guys have got this stuck in my head and I think I will be splashing around a bit trying to cage some bonus money.
From my reading of the NYS regulations, the sites are supposed to report you to the state for some kind of responsible gambling intervention if you deposit over $2500! That isnt even enough to clear some of these deposit bonuses lol. Feels like I might regret this.
Do most of you just deposit direct from your bank? These sites make it sound like you can deposit by credit card with no fee - but that can’t be right, right?
My credit card treats gambling deposits as a cash like transaction so cash advance fees apply. Was able to deposit seamlessly with no fees on BetMGM via PayPal, BetMGM also has a $1000 free bet promotion you might want to start with.
Just a heads up that PayPal may not be a great option for cash outs this year. For 2022 they are reporting after you hit $600 in transactions, or some such nonsense. I’ve had no problem using my bank accounts.
Is the reporting really a problem unless you are trying to tax dodge? I’ve moved a shitload through PayPal this year, but plan on reporting all my winnings.
Can use discover, they don’t count as cash advance AND you get cashback
Also, for future people who haven’t signed up for MGM, the big brain move is to create an account and don’t deposit for a day or two, at which point they will send your a $500 deposit bonus
The worry is PayPal will send you a 1099 for all your deposits. Even if it’s the same 2000 going back and forth
Nice NY promos for existing users
+100 for 3 points to be scored in Chiefs/Broncos (max $50): FD
+100 for a point to be scored in Knicks/Celtics (max $25): DK
Caesars NY insane signup/deposit bonus
$300 in free bets for signup
First deposit 100% match up to $3k matched in bonus cash with 1x playthrough
I plan to drive up to NY tomorrow
Lol yes I just got this. Seemed so implausible I think i read the t&c 40 times before I made a bet. You guys weren’t kidding about these bonuses lol