I don’t really have any feel for the NBA and this bet is over what I generally throw out there, but this promo from William Hill struck me as pretty decent.
Do you have a 2nd book?
Bet the opposite there, pay the juice, and hope someone scores 40+
I’m doing that (for the nba side) for their $25 free bet for betting baseball and basketball on the same day
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This is why I suck at gambling. I don’t yet think of this stuff. That said, I post here for advice so that’s a start.
Meh, hedging is -EV. If the bet is so large that losing it would cost you more in other opportunities, go for it, but in general I don’t like paying for insurance.
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This makes sense, but I’m trying to build up a roll so for now I’m happy taking guaranteed profit.
You should get your money back if every leg of your parlay is a loser
This isn’t hedging, it’s angle shooting.
He’s essentially paying $5 (the juice) for whatever free bet results.
The first bet is ++EV. The second bet is a -EV hedge. Put them together and you have ~0 variance free money, which in this case is preferable to Goebs, because he is underrolled for the bet size.
If you are properly rolled, you will certainly make more money in the long run by just taking ++EV bets without paying for variance reduction.
It’s ok to pass but not much fun.
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This is a great post yet impossible for some to understand. I’ve spent entire games trying to get this across to people, especially wen the last leg is a late game. Like why didn’t u just bet a 2 teaser if u were going to hedge the late game?
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Meh, sometimes you just don’t want to take a position on a game.
Not looking good for a big free bet
I’m gonna make $1 lol
Edit: made $8
8 in free bet is about 4 real $ and you’re out the vig
I’m learning!
PointsBet Bears +86 even money max $25
So I’m gonna also take the Bucs -3.5 -105 at FanDuel, unless we think the line will fall more?
Fuck the Dodgers. Was gonna do a 4 team MLB parlay yesterday and would have nailed it except the Dodgers game wasn’t listed because they took forever to name a starting pitcher because they’re losers.
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I’m on Yankees -1.5 tonight need one more.
Florida -7 tomorrow might go big on this one. Alabama crushed A&M and Florida is supposed to be good.
Cuse ML because fuck Duke.
I’ve got Russell Wilson + Kirk Cousins both o250 pass yds +100.
If the weather were good, this would be a lock. It is supposed to rain lightly and ~10mph winds. Pretty sure Cousins can still torch Flowers in the rain and the playing vs the Hawks is a good cure for protection issues.
Just an FYI, the juice was built into the spread. -4(100) is roughly the same as -3.5(-110) due to the value of that half-point. Likewise the other side was about the same as +3.5(-110).
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Thanks I did not know that. Had the same thing today on Florida - Texas A&M. I took the Aggies 