I’m in montana for $20 apparently
early reporting turnout numbers are very good out of the areas we need them to be
It’s a gambling flier like TX but lets go
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Montana could go either way. Our voter turnout this year was great, but I don’t know that it guarantees a blue wave. Our cities are so small that voting has always been easy, so the new mail-in votes could be fairly equally city/rural - in contrast to more crowded states.
That said, I’ve seen way more Dem signs in town than I can remember for any previous election, so if it is the cities turning out then we may hit the upset.
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Yeah I put a relatively small amount on it, I don’t think it’s a lock but I love the value.
In related news, I just added to my TX position.
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My longshots are 240 to win 912 on Dem Pop Vote margin >9% and 100 to win 910 on Florida Margin Dems by <1%. I’m hoping early returns / early voting swing pop vote blue, and I expect with any sort of close vote in Florida I’ll be able to sell that one off for a little bit more than I paid.
My other big bets are more likely:
- NO on GOP Elect College victory by 60-99
- NO on R House / R Senate (essentially betting Dems win House)
- NO on GOP winning GA
- NO on GOP winning NH
- NO on Trump outdoes polls by >8%
- YES on Trump loses a state he won in 2016
- NO on Ernst wins by >7%
And for lols:
- NO on Kanye >1M votes
- NO on Pelosi acting president on 1/20
- NO on H Biden indictment by 12/31
Looks like all prices are trending towards Dems so I’m done for a while. Collectively it’s something like 3k to win 5k
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Where do you have this? I only see 9-10.5%.
I bought both 9-10.5 and >10.5 for 120, but obviously only one can win the 912
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I read an article a long time ago that the books only balance the books for big events like the Super Bowl and ride the variance for the rest. They ar well bankrolled and don’t need to lower their EV for run-of-the-mill bets.
Man I love the NO Ernst by 7% and the pop vote margin, but I’ve already got over $15K down and that was supposed to be my limit lol… Pop vote is obviously correlated with a lot of other stuff I’m in, so I’m going to convince myself not to touch it.
I am possibly adding another $1,700 if stuff shifts as votes are reported and I can still access the site.
Collecting from the dude who bet me HRC vs field in the primary and I only had to lay 2 to 1. His final words, “I still can’t believe they ran a guy with dimensia.”
His spelling, not mine.
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Really disappointed not to see awice lose 100BTC today.
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MN 81 when it was 10 points down like a day ago is definitely stonking.
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Dumped my little remaining cash on VA 89c Biden Yes. I’m going to be way too drunk to navigate that shit tonight even if the site is up.
You mean ANOTHER 100btc
Did he bet somewhere?
He claimed in the BTC thread to have millions on Trump a few days ago.
Aye, I screenshotted it in the other thread, I think directly replying to you suzzer. Around 6 am this morning.
Another pro tip as we approach the hour when predictit melts down. I wouldn’t leave orders outstanding, especially buy orders. You might end up getting filled with worthless shares, and it might be very difficult getting outstanding orders cancelled during meltdown.
Oh I thought that was from 2016. Cool - should be fun.
I’m leaving the safe ones up. If they go sideways I’m not all that concerned about that being on fire when everything else is already on fire.
I took a little NC +105 and AZ -115. TX was +330 for a second but they didn’t let me bet it.