Lol that bet is hugely +ev as impeachment lol
Impeachment Yes has gone from +145 no vig to -105 no vig, and I think there is still huge value on Yes. Nancy has telegraphed it and the votes are there. I’m honestly most concerned there is some kind of brokered exit before the house votes.
Do they clarify what is meant by impeachment?
A brokered exit is the big threat for sure. He either resigns or gets impeached. Getting removed in the Senate is a long shot still, but it’s 10% likely and trending towards more likely. This thing is obvious enough that people are going to start backing it because they have no choice. That absolutely includes run of the mill Trump voters. Fox News is trying to save him from himself, but he’s making that really challenging.
What the line for the senate to convict is WAY lower than 10%.
Lol 20 republicans are never convicting.
I think it’s more than 10% likely that more awful shit comes out and makes it politically feasible for them. I’m not saying they’d be happy about it. Think about just how terrible the calls with other foreign leaders may have been. I won’t be even slightly shocked to find out that this Ukraine call isn’t the worst.
You’re failing to remember that it is wholly irrelevant what is on the other calls. A transcript could come out with trump telling Putin he will cede US sovereignty to Russia and you wouldn’t get 20 defections.
After all he was obviously “just kidding”.
I’m not being hyperbolic. I think this is what would actually happen.
The bets on predictit are for house impeachment
I disagree. I think he’s bulletproof as long as his rank and file support holds… but I think public opinion is super fickle and can swing wildly. I also think that basically everyone in Washington of both parties hates him personally and will take the first opportunity to destroy him.
Not because it’s right but because he’s caused them an enormous amount of suffering… which is hilariously why the base loves him so much. They chucked him at the government like a grenade.
I’m still betting they won’t get to it by Christmas, but it’s increasingly looking like they might.
I don’t think they will get impeachment done in 2019, but I exited my position, because I’m not as confident as I was. I think they are overwhelmingly likely to impeach at some point though. I think there’s still a better chance of hell freezing over than the Senate removing him from office.
Hillary trading higher than Harris or Buttigieg for the nomination. And that’s a pretty liquid market. LOL
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Lol noticed this today. Such delusion
There’s a market for the # of impeachment articles by 3/31. Shorting 0 seems like a pretty juicy play.
Bovada took down the impeachment prop after an enormous line move in favor of “yes.”
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I’m 100% on Warren.
Only with escrow and only if he’s not a real friend.
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This.
This is what I bet a couple of days ago. I didn’t want to mess with the before Jan 1 issue, though it appears likely (but there are soooo many crimes). Impeachment is a foregone conclusion, with the main risk being resignation.
honestly biden at 21c is pretty undervalued imo
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