Biden’s dead if it’s non stop Ukraine talk.
Doesn’t matter what facts are; most people don’t get past the headline and you know R’s are gonna benghazi this too.
I never messed around with predictit but decided to deposit a couple hundred two weeks ago. Here are my positions.
- $205 on warren at .41. I expect to ride this until around March and collect the $470.
- $80 on Warren as 2020 Pres winner. I may cash this out at 140, depending on how it moves.
- $72 on Trump not being pres at end of 2019 at like .17. This is an emotional bet but with some analysis behind it, and scoring $500 if he resigns would be sweet.
- $66 on “Not 0” impeachment articles by 3/21/20 at like .63. I debated betting on like 2, 3, 4, and 5+ (cause it will be more than one), but went with “not 0”.
- $21 on Barr not be AG at year end at like .15. This is another emotional yolo bet. I think he will face pressure but probably not resign. If he does resign I ship $150.
Yeah, I cut bait and sold all my Biden stock and even bought a little Warren. So help me, looks like Warren could actually win this.
Not super happy about all this smart money here signing up for predictit, tbqh. Want more Qanon dudes in the mix.
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My goal on predict it is to not spend too much time on the micro, get some emotional satisfaction, and make some good bets and hope they win out. I would have loved it in college, but the opprotunity cost of following politics, reading and posting here, and messing around with things like predictit is probably at least $50k/yr for me. It’s basically a life leak, but so are most hobbies, and they are part of what makes life enjoyable.
Yeah, #4 seems like free money. Predicting how many articles there will be feels like a crapshoot (is there any precedent for any of this?) but it’s a lock there’s at least one.
#5: I don’t think Barr ever leaves voluntarily. He’s tied himself to the mast of the SS Trump. And I don’t see how he gets fired or removed from office in such a short time frame. OTOH, .15 is dirt cheap.
Also, you should look into the “Will Comey/McCabe/Hillary be indicted?” markets. Still a lot of free money there imo.
The “will Hillary run?” market is just straight-up nuts right now. Taking all of my self-discipline to not deposit $850 and max this out. It’s way too late to get in the game and if she was actually getting together a team for a presidential bid we would have heard something about it. It’s not like WWE when you just apear in the ring out of nowhere like “BY GAWD THAT’S HILLARY’S MUSIC!”, you have to have teams on the ground ready to go ahead of time.
Damn, don’t tempt me. Problem is, it may not settle until like April or later. Hillary has increased her visibility this week cause her and Chelsea are hawking a new book and Mr. Chelsea isn’t that good at his finance job.
Buying Hillary No is .86 atm. Here’s the source for the movement: Steve Bannon: Hillary Clinton 'is running' again and 'trying to decide how to fit her way in' | Washington Examiner I’m going to follow this some and see jsut how stupid Predictit fish are. I doubt “No” can get to .80.
lol
Hillary also at $0.07-0.09 to be the nominee. I’ve just been using these Hillary markets to park money when I don’t have my entire roll in play elsewhere.
I maxed it. If you wanna know how stupid the yes bet is, filing deadlines for the caucuses are rapidly approaching. If she doesn’t file by november, the bet is effectively over.
biden up to 25c, didnt buy cause im dumb RIP
It doesn’t help that the facts are legitimately bad for Biden. Hunter’s Ukraine gig is blatantly corrupt.
I just bought Biden @ 15 to win 2020. Still own Warren shares I got at 11, but Biden is still the FR for now and just seems like value.
Impeachment by year-end 2019 dropped below 50c
glad I got out when I did.
mccabe market rising on this news
lol at this market, judge said “shit or get off the pot,” and Q fans go “IT’S HAPPENING!”
or maybe I miss something, who knows?
I gotta stop reading the comments in “will hillary run” thread. I can’t tell who is on what level or why.
you can buy no for 81 cents right now LOL
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God I want Hilldawg to run so bad. Would there be anything better than seeing her lose to Bernie or Warren? Would be amazing.