Betting on Politics: Predictit is NOT Dead

absolutely no way she fucks me twice.

But for real there’s like zero chance. Maybe even less than zero if it were possible.

Like the only way I lose this bet is if she decides to just DGAF and file the papers to generate buzz for some book she’s writing. That would be so hillary.

So, filing a statement of candidacy is the only way this resolves Yes?

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton shall become a candidate for president of the United States in the 2020 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy and/or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission. Absent such filing(s), the Market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Clinton and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.

The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Ms. Clinton’s previous presidential campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.

PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.

End Date: N/A

Yes

I don’t believe Hillary has another run in her and even if she did she’s out as long as Biden is in. She’s the reason Biden didn’t run last time.

McCabe market update:

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Law bros can chime in, but I think the doj can continue to stonewall the FOIA request if they get an indictment again him. So maybe it is happening? Depends on how much Barr wants to keep those records secret.

I don’t know the details of DOJ procedures and how they interact with FOIA, but I suspect you’re mistaken.

They have apparently already tired to indict McCabe but the grand jury refused. That’s insane. I think they can try again with another grand jury, but that would be almost unheard of. And then they have a case prosecuting one of the “enemies” of the president while he (and Barr?) are knee-deep in impeachment. Careers are ultimately going to end over the McCabe retaliation. Will he be indicted? dunno.

I had to throw another $40 on DJT not being president come Jan 1, 2020. Three months is a long time when things are coming out of the woodwork. It’s basically a bet that he folds. He’s a coward, so I think there’s better than 1:8 that he will.

Gonna look around and may bet $60 I have left on Hillary No at .84, but going to see if there’s anything with a better payout on a reasonable horizon.

Not touching this, but this is a true degen bet.

Put $80 on Hillary No.

Lol. I didn’t know they tried to indict but failed. How terrible would it be to be the AUSA assigned to that shit show? I can’t imagine having to go back to the office with the news I couldn’t even score an indictment. That has to be less that 0.1% failure rate.

Not gonna lie, the McCabe news has me a little spooked, but I still gotta bet against QAnon.

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Ha, feel exactly the same way. Gonna ride it out until there’s actual news.

Sanders just shot up to ~45, in Next Dem to Drop Out, on news he was hospitalized, canceled events.
I bought a few No Sanders shares.

That’s good news…for Hillary Clinton

The hillary comment section makes me honestly worried for humankind.

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Never read the comment sections on predictit. I understand that there could be edge to be had by understanding sentiment… but I can barely be bothered to go that deep on trucking and I make my entire living there lol. (Trucking FB groups are pretty awful)

It’s just entertaining to me. It’s unreal how delusional people are. But then - they say the same things.

Hillary appeared on a talk show or something today and my shares surged. Banked about 100 bucks after I dumped. I’ll wait until bannon or some other right wing “thinker” publishes something about hillary DEFINITELY running and I’ll get in at ~81 cents again looooool. I doubled down so many times on this one. But now I need somewhere else to park my money.

0 counts of impeachment by 3/31 seems decent parking spot