Betting on Politics: Predictit is NOT Dead

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forgot I still had no woman potus shares, we’re back in the game steve king

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I don’t know how you guys bet on PredictIt. Low limits, locked markets, massive rake, and apparently significant fear that they’ll just take all the money.

I realize there is some sick value, but this seems pretty ridiculous. I miss the days of intrade/tradesports.

I think of it like the golden age of poker, high rake, there’s good pros and some scummy shit going on but so many are recs you can still profit except I think PI is less likely to vanish than some of those sites were.

I mean I’ve gotten no shares at a profit even after fees on a guy who isn’t running for anything not to win.

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https://twitter.com/thepatmorrow/status/1323499093201747968?s=21

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Same, basically, but I’m slightly diversified. Biggest bet is on NC Gov. I’ve also got a bunch down on bets that are like 98-99%, and all my non-lock Biden bets are state level so it’s hard to get swept.

I want to get more down on MI Biden, PA Biden, and Trump Ohio after results start coming in if there’s a stupid shift - which I expect there will be. But I’ll have to deposit more when that happens AND get the bet down, so we’ll see. Maybe I should just put a few grand more on (would get me to 5 figs) and have it ready, and if I lose 5% of it maybe it’s just worth it to have it available.

Me being nervous as fuck paying off a little here, as I didn’t feel comfortable until the federal court ruling in the TX case - made me feel safer about SCOTUS. Now I’m moving tons onto PI.

For now I’m going to wait til tomorrow afternoon and assume the dumb money is going to outweigh the smart money from now til then. Site should still be usable like 1pm-3pm EST right?

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I’ve now got just a hair under $9,200 down on the election, this is by far the most I’ve ever bet on anything other than poker, like by a factor of 10.

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popular is back to .80 on predict. just amazing.

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Well dropped a dime on Biden. In to sweat with you all.

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I’m now genuinely curious how much the UP Syndicate is going to get down on this election. It’s going to be at least a quarter mil for sure.

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Yea outside poker this is #3 so far behind Mayweather - McGregor (10K maybe?), and 2016 (5ish). I’m pretty gunshy after 16, but I’m really tempted to get another 5K down or so.

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@MrWookie - can you move the Awice/EM2 betting stuff from the end of the POTUS bowl thread you just locked to here - so we can keep discussing it?

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You guys betting dimes and here I am a baller betting $15.

Yes, I know what a dime is

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I was loving the PI markets but the EM2 Awice stuff has me scared now. AGHDJLKDJFOIDJFOIJODIFJIOSDJFIO

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Yeah, I was wondering earlier today what side AWice was on.

This is not good.

https://twitter.com/EmpireMaker2/status/1323521830502588417

https://twitter.com/AWice/status/1323522702959955970

EM2 seems to be trying to back out while still trash talking.

I’m also in the 5 figs club.

But also, tonight is basically pure AMMMMYYYGDALLLLAAAAA

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I anticipate getting more down tomorrow, too.

He luckboxed it. He predicted Trump moving to the center, that was his big reason for being bullish on Trump early.

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https://twitter.com/EmpireMaker2/status/1323523928443121665

hmmm