Betting on Politics: Predictit is NOT Dead

1:10

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Earlier today Wasserman said GA is probably a hair more likely than FL. It’s .41 for GA. Gonna dump a couple of safe bets and buy GA.

ljk

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Do you still have money in cryptocurrency? The word on the street was Biden would be better for cc and the some of that was priced in already.

Then btc had it’s most volatile choppy day in awhile today:

image

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Sold my safe Minn, bough 200 Trump NO in GA at .39.

the smart money foolishly already bet

I count myself in that I suppose. We had completely forgotten about the undecided republican voters who will pop up the last week and the trump wave that will bet last minute (though nobody could’ve predicted THAT amount).

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for a second the btc graph was mimicking the POTUS PI markets and i was about to go full

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I was certain Biden could be ~1.30 or so tonight. Lol me.

AZ flipped 3x and counting in the last 1/2 hour :expressionless:

go right ahead and fill my steve king shares guys fill all of it on PI I’ll have to get more I wasn’t planning on but I’ll do it.

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Lol. Actually, BTC has been going up since ~ Sept 1 which is almost precisely when the Biden-Trump win % on 538 started diverging. :eyes: :eyes: :eyes:

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I see a repeating rising flag pattern, which is good news. The two smoky concert lasers at the bottom are a concern though.

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there’s a classic cup and handle and saucer and beer bottle and waffle iron

very bullish signs

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I mean, if we’re wrong, everyone with a brain is wrong, which is a bigger problem than losing some money.

https://twitter.com/RachelBitecofer/status/1323462245012152320?s=20

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Wow, interesting they have PA more likely win than WI.

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1323492549349302272?s=20

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I’ve seen enough.

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For better or worse PI currently has PA odds (62 Biden) equal to PI’s overall Biden odds (62 at this moment), seems like a logical market with bias?

But nahh, it’s a coincidence.

Of course, here’s what I posted in the mental health thread:

I think what triggered it was an indirect response to betting on the election and paying attention to the betting sites. As in, not being worried about the potential money lost at all, but, having a traumatic flashback to election day 2016 and watching the betting lines move and knowing what that represented.

PA is locked to my own dismay, I had the expert plan of selling PA reps in the am hours and buying dems–I don’t think I can do that now but I’m gonna try.

Maybe why as well, the locked markets didn’t get hammered (ie my strategy in FL)