NATIONALLY
Damn, it’s not even election day yet on the East coast and their servers are already jacked. Just barely got a bet in on Trump by 8% (lol) at the buzzer. Or I think I did.
So my initial thought to this “movement” in the last few days is that there’s some completely bizarro overall attempt to get Trump 270 on the PI front page for… reasons. But then I realized that with PA market capped there’s just no possibility of that. I mean none right?
So what the absolute fuck is going on?
With the low market caps there are just way more people who are casual bettors who are Trump voters than D voters. If the cap was like 10k or so you wouldn’t see anything near this.
except all the big books have close to the same odds. It’s the same thing everywhere, they’re all betting trump at such a volume if he wins it’s a bloodbath for us and the bookies.
The main election odds are whatever. The absolute dumpster fire stuff is people on predictit betting Trump to win by 8+, Virginia, New York etc.
Wait um just so you guys are clear… that means off by 8% compared to 538, not trump winning by 8%.
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Trumper influences telling all their fans about Predictit, maybe.
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VA isn’t impossible, one of the R grifters is pushing it with a reasonable point, college turnout isn’t gonna be as good as a % of the electorate as 16, white people are gonna be more of a % than 16, it’s just stupid to put up +650.
Rural votes come in first in VA so we’ll know if it’s remotely possible pretty quickly.
PredictIt trying to get people to bet on easy money before riding out of town
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I feel like im lighting money on fire by not having more on predictit. May need to make another small deposit. My trust in them is limited.
Yeah the site is already stalling up for me. Glad I was able to get my final bets in beforehand. I’m in for five figs. If Biden loses so badly he’s losing states like MI / WI / MN I’m mega-forked. If he loses but it’s because he lost something like PA and AZ, i’m only semi-forked, since I can win back ~70% of my bets just by Biden sweeping MI-WI-MN. My final-final ticket.
- Quad-Max Biden Potus
- Double-Max MN
- Double-Max WI
- Double-Max MI
- Max Trump to lose a state he won in 2016
- Max Trump to not win a state he lost in 2016
- Max Trump to not beat 538 polling average by 8%+
- Max Trump to not win by between 60-99 EVs
- Like ~$500 total on Dem clean sweep, Blue Arizona, Blue Texas, Blue Montana
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The main election odds on Betfair haven’t budged. This is a phenomenon of square money flooding the market and generally small caps on betting limits.
I’m gonna have a bit of a bet on Texas based on this:
https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1323469352469958662
It hasn’t looked that appealing to me but I’m totally clueless compared to this guy so in we go.
well I won’t name him, but he did so previously and earlier today and that was one of the other big waves.
What are the odds that PI takes all our money and pulls a Full Tilt? Is there a market where I can bet on that?
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they didn’t do it four years ago shrugs
He is probably the single best poll guy in America. Definitely top 3. Texas +235 or whatever you can get right now is a massively +EV bet.
Got down at +275.
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After some “reflection” I don’t think there’s a good chance of total riggage/abscondination going to happen on PI, mostly because the comment section is just 80/20 trumpers. Somehow, a million of them showed up on PI in the last 3 weeks. Take their $ imo.
(Don’t put more on there than you can afford to lose like duh obv)
I tried to bet but it’s full.