Arizona has flipped on PI
279-259, so many horrible scenarios are in play now. Not just one ten point state flip (or 6+4) away from 269-269 but if all of those states hold it’s down to PA.
What if they are right, there’s a lot more of them then there are nerds who follow politics, if their group also shows up on election day like they previously thought–it’s gonna be pretty close.
If yet again I’m less wrong than every pollster forecaster I look at but I still lose I’m gonna be very upset.
PredictIt is going nuts, wtf. I’m going shopping.
PI prices basically have no predictive power because of the $850 cap. Betfair markets are closer to reality. Betfair still has AZ as 55% for the Dems.
-130 on Bovada, which is massively tilted toward non-rational GOP action.
Ignore PI, calm down.
Books on politics all just copy PI/each other since the last month. Update whenever they get around to it from what I’ve noticed.
I just got ‘GOP by 60-99’ ‘No’ for 81cents
Also I’m betting AZ at the 55% price on Betfair. 538 has it at 68% Dem, the RCP average is choked up with garbage poles. I’m not taking 538 as gospel in every state but I see no reason to question them in AZ. Just gonna run with what they say.
People are making a ton of dumb bets. Don’t let this panic you.
Now I just got ‘Trump to beat 538 Popular Vote Avg by 8%+’ ‘No’ for 82cents…
if GOP wins 60-99 hits a lot of the time, like a lot lot.
Reading this reminds me of playing live blackjack with a guy who was doing stuff like doubling down on 15 vs a face card.
He would stay with stuff like 12 or 13 vs an ace.
His money did not last long.
These people are making us money. Enjoy it.
it’s but muh rallies vs but muh polls
which ever you really believe is accurate
whoever wins correctly dunks on the other for being morons
Wat
The only reason anyone here is betting biden is because of polling numbers.
At these odds. No one would bet Biden at 1.05 or whatever. Its just that the odds for Trump are truly terrible. If he was 6:1 or so we might bet Trump!
Yes. One side believes in data, statistics, and the scientific process and the other doesn’t. This combined with a strong recency bias from 2016 is what’s causing all the value in this market imo. Personally I’m not just gonna write off the entire science of polling due to 2016 lol.
Seriously if i lose this bet they need to just cancel polling forever. Even in 2016 the 538 average was only off by like 2-3%
I maxed it at 84-85, good look.
I’m still a little leery of getting a big bet down on MI and WI, I assume you all think I’m nuts? I know it’s just 2016 scaring me. Those seem damn near locks. Prices are ridiculous, too.
