That’s probably right that other sports work differently.
You really should look at racing, you know. The prices are very often wildly wrong because of the sheer complexity of the sport, the superabundance of historic data means you don’t need to know anything about the sport if you’ve got decent analytical skills and 10000 UK/Eire races/year means (unlike the bookies) you can choose your spots and still make enough bets/year to smooth out variance. Yields of 10-20% across hundreds of bets are quite achievable.
The insider knowledge thing is mainly a myth here used to promote scammer tipping services. A small number of trainers (eg Curley) prepare horses for a future race by having it underperform previously, and have “connections” back it at long prices on the exchanges in the designated race, the coup, and I stay away from the place markets because that’s where most of the shenanigans happen now that the authorities investigate the win markets, but otherwise the win markets are pretty fair I think.
lmao the amount of trumper money rolling into PI the last few weeks is insane. How are these state markets so low with no changes other than trafalgar polls? WI more or less conceded by the GOP and its at $.72?
Are you or anyone else who see Biden as a lock to win at all concerned that there is a small but reasonable chance that a large quantity of votes, specifically in democratic areas, may be destroyed, along with other avenues of voter fraud that could shift the likely hood of a Trump victory?
I capitulated out of my PA-Biden bet for this reason as a small loss. I decided I didn’t want to deal with the stress of sweating that situation. I’m not as worried about this as much in the other states I bet. I also think Biden is drawing very live to not needing PA to win the election so I wanted to balance out my bets better and hedge somewhat.
Yes of course. I’ve been considering placing a large bet for several weeks and this was probably my #1 deterrent. Ultimately my calculations have come to this bet being highly profitable even when factoring in a high chance of shenanigans. Pledge 10% of profit to ACLU if it wins.
If any of these fail, I will end up with my biggest loss ever, surpassing 16 and I think even full tilt
Biden
CA, VA, CO, NY not just by correlation, but I’d have to start preparing to get a real job I will hate like most people.
Also could end up overleveraged on GA/TX/MI/WI too but I could lose all four and end up pleased as long as the former holds (covid has thrown quite the variance in WI).
If you’ve ever seen 538 on florida or NC odds historically there is no other rational pick in the betting markets. Andrew Gillum 78%, election day 16 for both FL/NC were 55 but was in the 70’s the week prior.
also PI is going under maintenance at about the same time the 2016 election was called
ive bet basically the max i want to at this point and its crazy seeing the prices go down even lower.
Double-Max WI
Double-Max MI
Max MN
Max Trump to not win a state he lost
Max Trump to lose a state he won
Quad-Max Biden (the VP market and TX, SC, MA dem primary winner markets)
and then i got some smaller bets incrementally based on blue wave outcomes
Dem Clean Sweep
AZ
TX
MT
if i learned one thing its that its best to put in a small bet really early on to not get locked out of the markets. Some of the state markets are capped at this point for Rep NO, and of course the trump pop vote and presidential markets
I think I’m not gonna fire at this one but in case, can somebody tackle this as my brain is fuzzy from… stress, I think. I’m to buy all one side and balance the payouts, right?
I’ve got a decent amount down on TX on PredictIt. I’m sort of holding off on others, because I suspect big moves as polling comes in but then again I probably won’t be able to get a bet down. But on the other hand if nobody can get on, how can the markets move?
