dog wtf
I thought I robbed a bank by slipping in a few points under 70 but now it’s back to the low 60s.
Also, are these the only prez-winner markets open? I might be maxed on this specifically.
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well POTUS is locked, but you are missing the Electoral College margin one. All No on GOP is same thing. Should be combined under 60.
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aw shit forgot about those
For me it is just being paranoid after Hill losing. I know every single thing says Biden is that much more like to win than Hill was…but I havent put money on this election for that reason.
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wait, this one,
or is there another?
yeah that one
I didn’t think it’d be maxed out in participants, the side ones usually aren’t. I have a giant down arrow cause I did it too soon.
I hope in 2024, someone reminds me NOT to wager till the last week.
Don’t know that I’m gonna wade into State markets, but I’ve got $1950 to win $1k on Biden.
This market seems pretty free to me. You’re basically betting that he won’t win any of MN/NH/NV. The riskiest one seems like NV but that NV early vote guru seems to think NV is a lock for Biden
It’s still open but I’ve never did one of these, is it 850 each slot or total?
I just bought 75c to test
Dudes. I was just chatting to my slightly less plugged into politics gambling friends right this sec before I opened this thread.
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It’s far from free. It’s +EV though, I’m sure. It’s not a dollar for 60 cents though.
It’s fairly free honestly. I’d def bet that if I could. It should be like maybe 20 cents, if that.
Books balance their liabilities so they win whatever the result. It’s not only events that make the odds change.
This is a myth. Source: Am pro sports better.
This election is a good example. BetOnline report 85% of their Pres bet action is Trump, yet Biden is shortening. The site is taking a position.
Edit: Books will sometimes seek to balance their position but this is far from a universal truth. Also they will frequently do it by laying action off onto other books as opposed to moving the line. I can report firsthand that when you’re trying to get large amounts down on a bet, it’s critical to avoid books who will lay off to Pinnacle or Cris as movements there tend to move the whole market.
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That’s how bookies go broke, isn’t it?
Source: earns more than his pension from sports betting.
I’ve seen many times with my own eyes how little it takes to move prices at online bookies when you bet at early prices. £100 on a horse in the range say 6.0 to 9.0 will move it down at 8am.
Successful books are well capitalized and can generally afford to take positions on things if they want to. Smaller books can lay off to a large book to reduce risk rather than set their line on that basis.
Edit: right re your second paragraph but that reflects uncertainty in their line. They have no idea what the correct price is and therefore adjust aggressively.
They move it down to maintain the overround when they move others out to make them more attractive, in other words they’re trying to balance their liabilities and achieve a green book. They’re not an odds service, they exist to make money.
One of their tools is also laying off on the exchanges.
Pinnacle is unusual in that being so large it employs the best odds setters and relies much more than most on its positions (which is what makes it a very useful tool for bettors), but even so you’ll see static prices for long periods followed by a flurry of activity as you near the event start.
That’s the wrong way to look at it. Imagine they were 100% guaranteed that nobody is betting any other horse. They would still shorten the price on the bet horse because they don’t want to get owned by sharp bets. It’s damage control more than balancing the book. A balanced book is a welcome side effect.
We’re going to have to agree to differ on the reasons why prices shorten after large or early bets are made. I’ve known/PMd with a couple of UK bookies on a racing forum, and this is how their industry works.
To some extent we seem to be agreeing anyway - damage limitation leads to a green book in an ideal world.
Possibly that’s how racing works, I’ve never bet racing at all. It’s not how everything works. One of the features of racing is that it’s hard for books to ever take a strong position as there’s potentially so much insider knowledge.