What’s that gif mean?
I’m not sure if you’re serious
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Yeah I have no clue.
I’m still not sure if you’re serious.
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It would be highly unethical for Predicitit to take everyone’s money and bail out.
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PredictIt makes such easy, risk-free money with just their 5% cut that it would be ridiculously stupid for them to try to steal more as a one-off scam.
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They absolutely won’t be able to handle the traffic. Don’t plan on successfully trading anything Tuesday night.
But I’m not worried about them taking off with the money.
If Biden wins, he should give you a real job. What you’ve become in these intervening years is worthy of a Hurt cover.
So we had a little who’s on first situation there?
Yeah I didn’t know that one.
Yeah sorry, being a dick and I’m pre-drinking for Tuesday.
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Has there been a serious discussion on why the betting odds are so disconnected from the predictions? I saw the theory about the betting cap on PredictIt, which I could sorta see - but there doesn’t seem to be a cap on other markets and they have similar odds; roughly 60/40 Biden compared to 90/10 by several predictors. People are thinking it’s that likely to be rigged?
majority of gamblers are trumpers. They’ll bet at any odds. (one book just copied PI then the rest copied it + added juice, they all like to hang around each other)
The books do NOT want trump winning.
Trumpers have money and believe in their God-Emperor. Everywhere has a cap, I don’t think anyone will let you throw down serious money so the markets are extremely inefficient.
https://twitter.com/DaveMasonBOL/status/1323046660067512321
No fucking idea who’d take Trump VA +650. I mean okay it’s not a literal lock of the universe but god.
Bovada will let you bet $38k.
It’s just a McGregor / Mayweather situation where the public bets are so overwhelmingly in favor of one side the odds are divorced from actual probability.
To be clear, Trump can win. It could easily happen.
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Why are so few people betting Biden then? I guess if you told me Dems are generally more risk adverse it would not surprise me.
I think it’s as simple as the vast majority of gamblers are trumpers
I’m not worried either, they’re a research project of Victoria University of Wellington which seems legit based on some quick googling.
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