Not sure which market I’m really going to fire, I think Biden to win AZ/FLA at 1.72 is bad but might do that.
Where are people at with state betting at the moment? I like MN, MI, WI, maybe AZ, maybe NC, struggling a bit to come up with anything else.
MI, WI at 72 seems NUTSO. AZ probably really good at 56. MN/NC 3rd tier. Again, MI/WI seems to be printing money. don’t at me
Also nate flipped OH today and its at 69 red on PI but IA is still red on Nate’s stuff and at 63 red on PI? 
Betonline has some free money available like CA D -2000 max $20k. Also Biden win EC + pop vote -165 max $825 is the best Biden line I see around.
I have PA at 61c and WI at 63c and MT at 10c. PA making me nervous, but 538 has Biden 85% there so it seems like a good price.
PA mail isn’t gonna get counted election day or the day after in at least erie county.
I know some gamblers who think PA is solid blue but I ain’t going near it.
That +5 Biden poll in Ohio had me feeling pretty good about PA but yeah the election day results may be stupid. Not sure how the market is gonna react to that or if it will get priced in well
Ohio poll was Quinnpiac, who is consistently too favorable for dems in polling. If anything it depressed me a bit because it had trump/ernst in IA.
They had a FL +11 or 12 poll earlier that was a huge WTF.
The OH +5 is certainly an outlier, no other poll was anywhere close.
PA has had solid polling from others, if you wanna use those as the basis for wagering fine just don’t use Quinn.
There was a 6figure club too; Adanthar and I believe one other had over 100k in.
And I didn’t even bother scalping when the ship started going down and I saw the site lag.
I was all like:
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Gentlemen, it has been a privilege playing with you tonight.
-hopefully not me on election day
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I know it’s lolOhio, but RCP puts it at a tie even with lolRasmussen and lolTrafalgar polls in the mix, and the PI price is .68-.70 or so. There’s a case to be made that it’s a valuebet, but MN/MI/WI are much juicier right now. I can’t see betting on OH unless you’re a crazy degen who’s already maxed out MN/MI/WI, and even then NC might be a smarter play.
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fwiw, Ohio was 6 points off in polling in 16 and 18 senate race too far for D from 538’s data.
I don’t have much left (sold most of it yesterday in the 70’s) but I’m on the R side on that state.
If it’s blue the election is over at least. That and FL look like trump’s firewall.
This is annoying because there are some huge opportunities I would expect based on the order in which results come in. Better to just buy and hold on advance anyway? Or I guess I could put orders in in advance.
No love for NV at 76c?
I assume it won’t and I think Ohio and PA move in opposite directions and I want to max Trump OH, Biden PA as underdogs in both if that happens and play for the freeroll knowing I can’t lose both… But I’m not sure I’ll be able to get on there to get the bet in.
OH won’t ever be the firewall; PA/FL/WI will fall before OH does, and if they do, there’s no path to victory for him. Do agree that if OH goes blue it’s game over.
Ralston thinks it’s fairly safe (except NV 3 flips back to the bad guys which is -1 in the house) but I’m still waiting, they’re inching closer day by day and they might still have a decent edge on election day. I know R’s ate into their election day vote too just I can’t tell how much yet.
red firewall
Honestly, the real firewall is the state of Pennsylvania. Just like we always knew it would be. If you go down the line giving the most likely swing states to Republicans, you get this. It’s always these obnoxious Rust Belt yambags who decide the fate of our nation, it always will be. They’re fucking Penguins fans, they shouldn’t be picking the leader of a nuclear empire, for God’s sake. And some of them are even Flyers fans. The entire state is full of these uncivilized barbarian dipsticks.
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