Am I crazy to think the play is to bet Trump big on the states where mail in ballots are supposed to be slow, and sell them late on election day?
I’m not going short on PI any more, just long/hodl, way easier and less stressful.
It realllly looks like dollars are on sale for $.72 betting on MI/WI right now.
Woman VP market is pumping, I’m not sure what’s going on.
The main presidential market is full, so VP is a way to bet on that by proxy.
I just grabbed a lottery ticket - Biden winning Montana.
If there’s a blue wave I think it can happen, 538 has Biden at 14% to win there but there is almost no polling in Montana. Also, how good could polling be in Montana anyway?
One intangible that I think the polling may miss is that Montana is doing mail-in voting for the first time in this election. They send ballots out to all registered voters (no need to request one). This has to be good for Dems right? Montana is #2 state in the nation on 2020/2016 voting (behind Texas - early voting amounts to 86% last year’s total). So the mail-in is definitely having an impact. In addition, the NYT article that was shared earlier mentioned that they are likely to start counting the mail-in ballots first, so even if Biden doesn’t win there, he may have the apperance of a lead when the results start to come in.
Another intangible, COVID cases. Montana is just now entering it’s first wave. They didn’t really have any spikes previously because the state is just so small density population I guess? IDK, just complete guessing at this point. But the spike in COVID cases near the election will probably be covered heavily on their local news, another plus for Biden.
Finally, Montana polling closes late in the day (10EST) when some of the other states may already be decided, so a lot of bettors looking for their next fix may hit up the Montana market at that time.
All this added up to being worth my ‘longshot’ bet of the election. Felt like better risk/reward than something like Ohio where I think the electorate is probably better understood?
Some smart money flooded PI, all markets have been buying dems in the last couple hours.
I’m doing this in a few states, Rhode Island (lock dem) isn’t reporting mail till wed. Neither is NY (though that should be so massive only a real, real, real fucking idiot would take that past 20). Well and PA gonna be a shitshow in any measure.
There’s some others out there, Alaska isn’t either, so the plan there is to buy red, sell it on e day but that is a bit risky due if it’s a blue landslide it’s not gonna move the right way.
A few other states will end up doing this due to volume.
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we’ve had like 5 montana polls in the last 5 days so lol at the no polling comment
MT polling is usually good though averaging them.
Depends if you believe the +2/+4 or the +6/7 ones for betting here. I’m going in at 10, but I wouldn’t at 15 so.
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NC flipped. Rather astonishing.
Just a heads-up to anyone who might be new to predictit. The site will be completely and utterly nonfunctioning on election night. You might as well not even try to load it up. It will just piss you off.
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Hope you guys got in on this because now it looks like
~29% vig and Biden sweep from +9900 to +450 lol
Also it will take like forever to pay out in full.
Honestly I’m a little concerned PI is going to do a hit and run and disappear completely on 11/5…
This is maybe the main reason I don’t have even more money on PI than I do right now. Who knows if they pull a Full Tilt on us.
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You can put 17.5k on Biden to win at Bovada. That seems like a high limit but I don’t know anything.
I have $2600 on Biden to win the popular vote and if they let me bet more I will. I’m not touching anything else.
If anyone is interested fox has a free app where you predict sports and can win cash if you wind up with the most points. They have an event for election night. $50k guaranteed, 6 multiple choice questions each worth one point. Fox super bet 6
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Shocked its that low tbh. Its usually the worst book i have an acct on, but the manitoba/British columbia/Quebec sports book has a $100k max.
Can get popular vote at 1.14, Biden at 1.58, dems to win at 1.55.
there’s a biden market and a dem market at the same price and limit, so 35k.
plus a few k on pop vote and each state is 4-500 or the ridic ones are like 150 max winnings or something.