Damnit, popular vote market is filled
I found this for biden markets in the PI comments
https://www.politicalalertengine.com/analytics/market-overview/biden-markets
i bet Woman VP
SC dem primary
NH dem primary
TX dem primary
I had to dump some more $ on trump no in MN WI MI PA today. Completely out of touch with reality.
How is Biden 1.27 to win NH at Betfair?
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nh/new_hampshire_trump_vs_biden-6779.html
that’s a little worse for biden than books in the US I think heh
Hillary only took the state by 2.5k votes or so and the reps tried to suppress more votes so +10 isn’t realistic to me anyway.
Trump down to 1.7 in Florida on pinnacle (-140). He was -110 today I think.
-149 in Georgia
it’s a flip in NC
1.23 now.
PA seems like a soft market right now.
Should’ve went bigger. Got a little scared because there hasn’t been much polling in NH.
Put most of my bf roll on dems winning Colorado at @ 1.07. From the not competitive states it had the best price and 538 has it 97%
I hate backing at odds as short as those because it’s impossible to weigh up (or even list) all the things that can go wrong.
Ok so like why shouldn’t I shove on biden?
Pi has trum no at 60 wtf is going on
And not a single book has biden shorter over -200
That market is full but you can still get the equivalent of Biden being POTUS in other markets (like Female VP), but for like 62c-65c range. I shoved on Biden. I guess the only reason to maybe think about doing otherwise if is you think the odds will tighten as it gets closer to Eday so you can get even better odds.
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PI is fubared. Lol at WI right now. If I was single I’d dump 5k + into PI. I should sell my non maxed out slot for the main market and pop vote.
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There are some really dumb markets for free pennies out there like you might get VT 92 NO or CA 91/92 NO etc.
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What I’m really trying to get at, and apologies if this has already been discussed, is why are the odds so good? Are they really giving trump that much cheat/shenanigans equity? People abandoned all faith in the statistical science of polling?
That polling has failed in FL like every time and biden’s right about at the same # as they always are.
I don’t buy over 10 points for biden nationally and all the key states are polling a fair bit closer than that.
There’s also a huge difference between polling twitter and right wing polling twitter, both sides are thinking landslides for their guy. It’d be really dumb to move the odds up when trumpers are betting it down anyway.
Books are mainly just copying each other/PI from about three weeks ago.
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Slight difference is Republicans haven’t had a landslide since about the last time the Mets won the world series.
Its been discussed but uh not sure where: 2 larger streamers or sites or something on the Trumper side have talked about/promoted PI in the past 2-3 weeks, causing an influx of cash.
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It is taking a ton of self-control to not drop a few more k into some of these markets.