It’s ramped up the volume on state markets.
Still not too late to get into the Hunter indictment market before the rest of the scavengers strip its bones. I backed up the truck and bought NO shares for .75, feeling pretty good about that.
I’ve been reading “will hillary run in 2020?” Comment section nearly daily for a year. All the yes pumps have ghosted, and finally the last holdout, mymomsays, looks like he’s probably fucked off for good.
Even as recently a month ago he was concocting insane scenarios of how Hillary was actually running.
It was a wild ride. Thanks predictit. I don’t think I’ve ever been so thoroughly entertained by something.
2 Likes
I think this means he’ll have -$1k bankroll on Nov 4th.
3 Likes
I can’t believe we’re getting paid and entertained at the same time. Best website ever.
1 Like
This post is correct, there’s always a few people in the comments section who aren’t joking asking if R yes and D no are the same bet.
Multiply that by how many people didn’t ask who also don’t get it and that’s why.
I bailed out of my NM shares today with AZ polling turning the wrong way, it’s not looking double digits atm and there’s so many better bets than that one is right now.
If it reaches over .30 right before the election, I will add another 850 assuming other markets don’t offer that. Unfortunately, I don’t see it reaching those numbers again unless it’s going to 100.
It’s also good to realize that Gary Johnson got 4.5mil votes in 2016 compared to Stein’s 1.5mil. That dude was pretty damn popular with reps.
Nearly everyone on right wing political modeling twitter has Trump easily winning FL.
Like 6+ easily.
The other side has Biden +4 or so.
They’re all ****ing stupid.
3 Likes
lol.
Almost def its just “polls were SKEWED in 2016 so you have to add 10 points to R this time”
LOOOOL. The popular vote is down to .78 again.
1 Like
One dude’s actually using facts and then lying about other shit for his arguments, much sneakier than the rest who are just really blatantly lying about everything and hoping their turnout is massively higher than dems they end up being right.
it’s actually more persuasive to a casual than BUT MUH POLLS the other side mostly only has
I’m trying to look at actual data, early votes, enthusiasm (R wins here obviously), new voters, etc.
NV looks okay despite polls being kinda eh, AZ looks eh, FL looks uh, MI looks good/PA has been fine, WI idk–it’s so damn rural, I’m shocked dems have mostly ignored it so far though PA is much more important I get it.
I figure on that there’s still a 5% chance that so many white people who didn’t vote turn out vote to flip that + college turnout/black vote as a % lower than 16. Latter may happen anyway.
Or you can just believe Rasmussen who seriously claimed 46% black support trump now after a few rich black people said no to high taxes.
so if it hits we’ll have learned a lesson never campaign ever on any platform with higher taxes because someone with millions of followers may not like it.
In my opinion you can basically disqualify the possibility of sharp money moving these lines with the absolutely insane popular vote lines.
1 Like
all you have to do is read the comments section to learn the answer to that
The sharps I follow have biden as a near lock and all think FL is big time biden favorite which I do not. I am just gonna go my own road and hope it all works out instead of “still lose a lot as I was only slightly less wrong than those same pundits” like 4 years ago.
I’m gonna bet some Dems in Texas. 538 has polling even now and turnout is going bananas, which presumably is good for Dems. Dems just objectively should not be a big underdog. I feel like there’s psychological resistance to the idea that Dems can possibly win Texas, especially after what happened last election, but this is what the data says.
What are the betting limits on PredictIt? Super tempted to load up on a lot of these
$850
$850 if you pick biden yes, another 850 for trump no in the same box for example
so some markets its 850 the rest it’s just under 1700.
5% withdrawal fee before you think to load up on all the ridiculously dumb 95’s though
NO is often a few cents better than yes in the same market because lol people
It’s $850 per market but if you want to go nuts you can bet $850 on Biden winning, $850 on the next VP being a woman, $850 of Harris being VP, etc.I think the Trump vs. Biden market has filled up and you can’ bet on that anymore.
well there’s about 10 other markets that are the same thing ie,
“will SC primary winner win general election”
or the EC market
you can get 96 on GOP pop vote NO on 10.5% more than dems which is so absurd.