Trump to win PA +185 seems insanely good
I have a question. I joined PI back in September. They offered $15 if I deposited $15, which I did.
I know you had to wait 30 days to move money or whatever. Do I sell now or wait until the election? I assume wait, but I’m not sure.
Sell the Trump wins popular vote shares and move them into the 2020 winner market. Then wait for it to pay out. Then put all of your winnings into no shares in the “will Hunter get indicted” market. And wait another month.
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hunter biden market up to 28c 
Ladbrokes and its skins have Trump popular vote share 40-45% @ 2.35 (+135). The current RCP Average is 42.5. 18 of the last 20 national polls have been in the range 40-44, the others were 45 and 46. The RCP average for the last 12 months looks like this:
Call me crazy but I don’t think this bet should be priced as an underdog.
Edit: Though I guess undecideds will add a couple percent.
Series of great polls for Biden, he still drops down three cents ¯_(ツ)_/¯
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PI completely out of touch with reality lmao. Nothing but good polls etc for Biden as the election comes to a close and my STONKS there have never been lower. Really tempted to dump some more $ in there just to get lol trump no on pop vote for $0.22 but I’ve had enough of this dumb “hobby” lately.
Bovada will take up to $8250 at Biden -165 and another $8250 on Dem -165. Plus $1500 on Dem popular vote -500.
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sigh, why did you have to make this post.
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lol, wish I had more money in my account this morning
I don’t think they’re sure things obviously, I’m freaking out daily, but if people are looking to get real money down and not pay absurd rake it’s a viable option. The only bet I’ve made is maxing out popular vote.
Predictit you can get that kind of $ down, surprised bov isn’t higher actually since lots will bet both sides though bovada was claiming the political sharps are betting trump. Which isn’t what I’m seeing at all so I’m still poring through what’s going on out there.
You guys pounded this too hard and it’s back to -185
Dem popular vote limits just doubled in Bovada, line remains an astounding -550 and you can bet up to $3k. I suspect the limits will go up again before Election Day.
This is the kind of person you are betting against.
https://twitter.com/themouthmatusow/status/1319412893171937280
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I bet 10k of my 20k bankroll
I just think that statement alone from Matusow needs a moment of reflection
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Grunching this thread. Is there a reason why the spread between Biden yes and Trump no is so large?
If I wanted to bet Biden, I could either pay .64 for yes Biden or pay .59 for No Trump.
Is there any reason to prefer yes Biden to no Trump? Seems like it should be the opposite, if anything, because no Trump not only includes yes Biden but also yes Harris et al. if necessary.
Popular vote to Biden seems like free money, but that’s locked to new traders. In it’s place, this seems like the best free money available:
Basically it means that Trump would have to sweep:
North Carolina
Arizona
Florida
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Michigan
All of which are +Biden on 538. Plus Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, Texas, all of which are pretty close. I understand that errors are correlated here, but that’s a lot of dominoes that all have to fall the right way.
To your first point, that is very often the case and I’ve always assumed it’s because the magatards are too stupid to realize that they are (almost) the same thing. Because of ties, some of the weird rulings on the site and because of black swan events, I think a No market is always slightly more valuable than the corresponding Yes market.
New users can no longer bet on pres or pop vote markets so who knows how that screws up everything.