The weekly approval ratings are for degens, man. You don’t want any of that.
I do
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On hillary to run in 2020 the comments are flooded with shit like this. What a world we live in. What beautiful opportunity.
I am determined to become the babs of political betting.
Skynet is just modeling our responses, there is no way those are real people. Hilary not running in 2020 is something you could bet your children on, should you be burdened by that misfortune.
The woman elected is VP, actually:
Will a woman be elected U.S. vice president in 2020?
Yes 41 (seems high)
Biden seems likely to choose a female running mate. Warren, unlikely. If Trump-Pence runs again (if), that side is off the table. Here’s the 90-day chart.
Seems good for trading? Volume the problem tho.
love how the delusional dude calling another (also delusional) person delusional
its delusions all the way down
I already have all my betting money tied up, but I really want to max out that market.
Like the odds have to be <1%. The bet says she just has to file as a candidate - but why would she do that. No chance.
The only reason I don’t have money in the HRC market is that the time value of money on predictit is like 30% a year… at least. The expiration date on that contract is the problem with it.
~10% ROI on a year isnt that bad if you think as investing. I maxed it, why not. No way hillary can fuck me twice. Fuck me once, shame on me. Fuck me twice, dont play on predictit again
Plus i doubt its a year to cash out. It probably moves to 97-98c by march. There’s idiots thatll buy at that price right?
10% ROI on the year is bad on predictit IMO. The rake eats a good bit of it and that money should compound several times between now and then.
Where are you getting 30% ROI on short term bets?
I’m terrible at markets. I doubt I could. The 10% number was after rake, i bought at 85c
It’s about the time value. A bet that nets 10% over two weeks is obviously way better than a bet that nets 10% over a year and a half. 10% in two weeks is 400%+ annualized.
Being long Warren to win it all is probably a better bet right now than betting HRC doesn’t run. Yes option 2 is a lock, but option 1 has a lot more room to run and the momentum she’s got right now is pretty crazy.
To be clear I see predictit as a video game rather than something super serious. I haven’t deposited that much money either (although there’s a tiny part of me that thinks I should be more serious).
I’m long on warren for a few primaries. Shes priced great rn.
I like to fire and forget with my money, my main investments are all tied up in boring 60/40 bond/market index funds basically just sitting and waiting for something to happen. I have discretionary funds i give myself for little things like this, to me it is fun. Fair point about the rake though… i don’t know what to bet
My ideal bet was the number of votes K was going to get. I got a max position down on <60 at like .15 if I recall correctly. This was like a week or two before he was set to be confirmed. There was no shot that he was getting more than 1-2 democrats.
There are lots of super super stupid spots on predictit at any given time. Lines where you can bet on something that is concluding in a few weeks is basically all I look at now… or bets where I’m getting odds with longer dates. I bought a max on Warren at .14 to win it all and that’s obviously gone fantastic.
I thought 48c for warren iowa primary was a crazy good deal but i guess thats not a few weeks out. I’ll browse more shit. I’m down a smidge due to trying to luckbox approval rating lol. I still have a decent shot at a 5x bink though
You’re looking for short term locks in the …85-.95 range (usually you’re betting on no) and long term value plays that have room to double or triple… preferably while they are trading under .10. Those two things generate absurd ROI’s lol.
The best thing about the long term long shots is that you have zero intention of holding them to expiration. You aren’t betting that they will actually win the unlikely thing… you’re betting that it will look way more likely in some news cycle between now and expiration. If they have a good news day you double your money and snap sell.
Andrew Yang has been the absolute GOAT for me this cycle by predictably bouncing up and down. I’ve doubled up on him twice and am currently down 30% on a smallish position. He’s really good at creating positive news so I’ll probably sell this position in the black again. The Yang pattern is you buy him after he falls to .05-.07 and then sell him when he jumps to >.10 before a debate or after a good poll.
Are folks just charging thousands on their credit cards to get money onto here? Seems to be the only way.
I’ve yet to run into issues depositing or withdrawing, but still get the jitters after all the poker nonsense dealt w for years. But their waiver from the CFTC should put all this uber-cool with the credit card companies?
Betting on ST locks at 10-1 does tend to have a nice return. … where you finding all these?
Sorry it’s .85-.95. I reversed it in my head lol. I think of it as short .05-.15. I fixed it in my post.