I’ve never bet on that site. What is the max I am allowed? Seems like a lot of free money laying around.
~$850 on any given market.
It should be noted though that many events/outcomes can bet in multiple ways. Yes Democrat, no Republican, etc. So you can often bet more than $850 on a given outcome.
We could really use a Gabbard November debate market.
The “yes will be impeached” by 2019 actually dropped a ton today. This market doesn’t make sense to me. I’m down a bit but I’m staying in, I think it may be drawing live. It’ll definitely hit the mid 40’s again.
lol, welcome to Predicit, my friend.
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Maybe I sold those Warren shares too early.
I’ve got some warren at a decent price
My short term bet is trump approval > 42.9% by 9/30 at 18c. Felt like a steal
Impeachment at 64 has to have value, right?
It’s +130 at Bovada. No -160.
I keep talking myself in circles. No idea. Was gonna sell my Yes shares actually, started thinking about it, thought about buying more.
Trading-wise, I guess this goes higher but I think there’s a likely ceiling up until a vote just because PI is crazy. 80-85 up until a vote looks imminent? Tough to see it declining, given the way the story is developing. 400,000 shares, should move slower …On no news, maybe it drops maybe to 50s, mid-50?
Guessing, obv.
+130 at Bovada is like a PI 75 ?
Honestly, Trump is handling this so poorly a part of me worries that they might actually get to impeachment by Dec 31. Like WTF at releasing that transcript.
Maybe they knew it was coming out anyway and by releasing it themselves they can pretend it’s no big deal and they were transparent the whole time.
Problem is they just blew up what could have been a strong executive privilege argument. POTUS talking with a foreign leader seems like exactly the kind of thing executive privilege is designed to protect.
Eh, the whistleblower’s complaint was getting out one way or another. At that point it is impossible to even put on the mob boss defense of the call if you won’t release your team’s sanitized summary of it.
Nixon would have fought that out in the courts for months. But that’s because his lawyer wasn’t an incontinent, senile old man who goes on TV and admits to doing crimes.
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Suckaaaaassssssss i got a big bet on impeachment in the 40’s :)
Here are some markets I’ve been looking at:
Will a federal charge against Andrew McCabe be confirmed by December 31, 2019?
32 (seems high)
Will the U.S. label China a currency manipulator in 2019?
70 (high)
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in 2020?
25 (lol no, high)
Which party will win Virginia in the 2020 presidential election?
Dems 86 (seems low, but 86 is actually a recent high and this market is stupid thin on volume)
Will William Barr be Attorney General at year-end?
Yes 77 (no opinion)
Will a woman be elected U.S. vice president in 2020?
Yes 41 (seems high)
Which of these six Democratic candidates will drop out next?
Yang 2 (PI loves Yang)
My thoughts and positions.
I have a large but not maxed No position on McCabe. I’ve held since before the crash and recovery of this market. I’m not that confident in this one though.
No insight on China market.
I’ve been maxed on Trump popular vote No for awhile. The only bad thing here is you have to hold for a long time, but I think he’s drawing dead to actually win the popular vote.
I’m not playing the Virgina market. .86 when you have to hold for over a year seems bad when you can probably get for something similar next summer.
No position on Barr.
I’d rather just but Warren in the 30s than the woman president market. Can add Harris for a few cents if you must.
No position on Yang drop out but I agree it should be very low, considering the others in the list, he will likely make November debate, etc.
I bet quite big on trump approval >= 42.9% by the end of the week when it was at 43% before the impeachment announcement. Basically bet on his approval not changing at all. Bought what i thought was low and saw it drop to like 3 cents in the last few days, hemmorraghing cash for me. His approval wont move and it hasnt really except a slight dip and rebound today. I’m looking good at winning i think.