Does anyone remember what any of the swing states were trading at on predictit this time in 2016? Was Florida red around this time?
most of them were blue as clinton was well in the 80’s till the last week or so where she fell to the 60’s but I can’t tell you when FL went red.
Bad flashbacks to monitoring Florida on election night. Certain counties going awry was the first warning sign that things weren’t going according to plan.
MN at 76 feels like free money. Play devil’s advocate against me and tell me why I’m wrong?
Not literal free since minnesota is rural enough but I have it higher than 76 so I think that’s a good bet. Various sports books are better odds than PI for MN last I looked as well.
It was -200 at one point on one of them. Bovada currently has -250.
First Biden 60 on PI tonight AFAIK
You can get 15-20% on your money betting that Barrett will be confirmed before the election. That’s just free money, right? Like I don’t think the Dems can do anything to delay it even if they were going to try, which all indications are they are not.
You’re fading 2 GOP Senate deaths or something insane like a 9/11 type event.
I don’t think it’s free. It’s possible the confirmation happens after the election. It could still be in time for her to decide on election-related matters.
Yea I agree it’s not free. I don’t think Republicans are real sure when they should time the confirmation.
I think it will be before election day, but not a sure thing.
I took like $500 on Barrett to be confirmed pre election, this whole COVID rampant in the GOP thing is not great news for that bet lol.
I just loaded up on No for Dems to win GA in presidential elections
Because if they do, I’m not going to give a shit about losing that money
4 Likes
It’s annoying to get money in and out but Bovada has upped their limits and there is a ton for free money. You can bet up to $1200 on Biden to win popular vote -600, and they have all 50 states, some with absurd lines. I’m not betting the states yet as I expect the polls will tighten at some point but the site is clearly dominated by emotion based deplorable bettors. You can probably arb some of the lines but I’m too lazy for that.
most of the bovada lines are poor now, they copied PI’s lines + added juice both directions so it’s not so great. There’s a few states for dem I like and one R I thought and that was it compared to say predictit even with those fees. A few other sites still have slightly better lines but it’s not as easy as it was not long ago, now they all started copying each other when one was just copying PI before.
ie, dems -650 pop vote or biden -190 might really be the best line there right now and that was not the case a week ago. I wouldn’t bother touching any of the -2000->10000 lines unless you really have $ sitting around not doing anything else and you’re fine taking the safest but not the best odds you’ll get free money. (or it keeps you from donking it off on NFL, whatever the case)
that said, one of the bigger youtube right wing things I won’t link to was talking about predictit and how easy the trump lines were in 16 to bet on so a flood of money on republican came in this morning.
That said, I do wonder if I’m making a big mistake not betting ON trump on PI so after he leads the early voting more idiots buy him up a lot and then pull the lever.
man, there’s an actual chance I was on the other side of that if it was on PI.
at least if I punted it went to a good cause
People keep firing republican on PI. CA and NY still free money at 93 or 92 if you set the order you might get it filled sometime. Hunter Biden not to get charged at 85, Pelosi not to be acting president at 92 I think is still there but very understandable if you pass on that due to time.
88 on election being decided before Dec 14 I think is a good wager too, don’t see it lasting that long unless we got 2000 level of oh ****.
Biden doesn’t drop out before 11/1 91c on NO for some reason. Take the free money and run or hope they still push the biden stuff and get a better price from morons? up to you.
fwiw, I still like on PI for dems
CA 94, NY 92. Who are these ****ing idiots. Maybe some are just hoping that R shows a lead in those two states on election day and then flip it to make more off the idiots but I’m just gonna take free money here and laugh instead of trying to guess timing on those two states.
NM 87, I guess I sorta get it, latinos in NM aren’t that democratic but man I don’t buy it
MN 78, worst case you get 16 where dems just hang on to the state
GA 43, I’m on team GA gonna be blue NOT by over 5 though
WI 70, looks good to me
TX at 28, seems closer than that though this is by far the riskiest one
VA at 91, if this loses trump won it’s a very short night
1 Like
If anyone wants another shortish-term free money market, Trump - Kim Jong Un meeting in 2020 is trading at 93c No. Seems impossible.
North Korea doesn’t extradite to the US, so there’s that lol…
this is one of like five markets that’s going snap to 97 or so NO right after the election just from people having nowhere else to bet