Actually I think MI / PA / WI / MN are somewhat decoupled from FL / GA / TX / AZ. Obvously there’s still some correlatoin there but I could see him losing MI and winning FL as not outside the realm of possibility
Yeah I think it would be too annoying to specify, I’d want to say that Trump outperforms his RCP average across the Rust Belt by more than Biden does but whatever, it’s too much messing around to come to an agreement.
That’s not just a function of undecideds though right? A polling miss similar to last cycle would also cuase trump to outperform RCP in the rust belt
Trump at 40% to win any state he lost in 2016 seems pretty damn high. Maybe that’s the old pop vote being at 44%.
Nevada isn’t that likely to flip.
Yeah, wow, I’d short that if my funds weren’t all tied up.
Could someone explain the nonsense that goes on in the disqus comment section for PI pres. market at all? It simply does not make sense to me. WTF is it?
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election
That’s somehow almost exactly where 538 has it
it’s mostly New Hampshire
polling there has slipped a bit or Maine, rural white non college.
last NH poll, 45-42 with jorgensen getting 4 (jorg will not get 4)
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Yeah, I completely missed New Hampshire. It seems about right, I guess.
Some people are Qanon lunatics, some are deliberately trying to distort the markets, some are just weirdos shitpoasting (guilty as charged). Do not make any bets based on PI posts.
will joe biden test positive for covid -500 by sept 19th at mybookie.ag
they probably meant the election date but LOL if it pays out in 5 days. (haven’t cleared the bonus yet so dunno about this book started that right before covid hit LOL me)
they have debate props too unlike PI LOL them now.
Is that accessible in the US? And is that a safe and reliable site? They’ve got some doozies on there.
And many are all three
This is a common trumper reason why there’s no chance dementia Joe is going to the debates.
yeah you can US it but this isn’t one of those state by state ones if you get my drift. So it’s as safe and reliable as one of those books.
Their state markets are now copied whatever bovada has though.
I’m confident Joe will do at least one debate (trump will make it a shit show though, sigh but too many people really believe he’s full blown out of it for him to skip I think). He’d be a fool to do rogans pitch but idk if he’d bother saying anything in public about it.
77% on MN for biden is free money after that abc poll
77% is a solid bet but not what I’d call free money. The same pollster had Clinton +12, 17 days before the election (the eventual result was Clinton +1.5). Most Biden supporters say they’re intending to vote early or by mail, but the “strong enthusiasm” for voting number for him is 44%, vs 67% for Trump, so there are question marks over how many of them will actually bother. Biden would be 90-95% to win if the election happened now probably, but it could drift closer.
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given the election is mostly up to the same people who were just fine with Jerry Sandusky I’m never gonna go up to 90-95%.
big thanks to whoever is punting money to me for safe blue states on PI.
or lol me when it’s declared trump won every state, one of the two