He also doesn’t even need to cheat, just announce a vaccine in late october (irrelevant if it works or not), does just enough in PA+FL+TX, wins by 4 in the EC or something.
I’ve written this many times (and i’m sure i’m not the only one), but not only will he announce a vaccine in late October, he will also blame the deep state and the house democrats for withholding it from the public and promise to release it the moment he’s re-elected.
but I thought this virus is a nothingburger. I heard only 6% of people actually die from it.
Yeah, I’ve been saying this since June and I have the MRNA options to prove it. This motherfucker better at least announce it by 10/15.
FYP with the proper derp.
Where’s the biggest edge right now?
Bear in mind Predictit has a 5% withdrawal fee and a 10% profit fee and you have to deposit to get your money down
My current state positions:
Texas R
FL R
GA R
AZ D
OH R
IA R
NE-02 D
Texas at .75 looks awfully juicy. But don’t listen to me, mostly talking to myself.
If I had more money liquid, I’d add positions on NC R, MT R, MO R, ME D, NH D.
But the freest money is still the popular vote even though its up 79 now.
Biden to win at 0.59 looks good to me. Will Trump win the popular vote and will the Dems control the House are free money imo.
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Yeah I’m already maxed out on Biden and Dem to win the presidency, trying to figure out which contracts to get more down on that outcome.
The damn withdraw fee is complicating. To get more money down I’ll need to deposit which I see as a 5% hit right off the bat, obv
PA R as a life hedge?
IF trump wins making a measly $1600 or w/e on PA will be little comfort :(
As someone who only goes on Predictit very infrequently, are the obvious choices worth it at the close to $1 prices?
Like NY at 0.94, VT at 0.95, CA at 0.96, DC at 0.98.
Those are lock D guarantees to pay out at $1.
After fees and shit, how much are you actually making?
I signed up earlier this week and put all my money on Biden winning and popular vote.
I’m guessing $1 per share but after fees and shit you lose money.
He literally has a disclaimer on his model to address exactly this point.
It depends if you already have money on the site and not invested in other contracts. Then they are worth it. It’s not worth it to deposit money for those though.
I think of any money I put on on PI as a long term investment. I don’t plan on cashing out any time soon. The fees become too much if you start depositing and cashing out.
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it’s 5% withdraw fee and 10% profit, so basically unless you are a regular who just has money sitting there doing nothing that you’ll use to bet later you have to avoid anything around 6 or less unless it’s going to resolve very soon. PI markets aren’t efficient so unless you still have Yang/Clinton bucks lying around like I do best bet is to pass. NY might not reveal mail in ballots to later so that might actually go up for R LOL. I have to look this up.
Some sports books do not have near those fees and just copy predictit lines however… cough cough nudge nudge wink wink
Yearly ROI of course says to do it (along with clinton not running or winning anything) but with indictment and tweet markets KO’d might only be a handful of things to wager on for awhile early next year.
also GOP 280+ is 95 NO I mean there’s plenty of 5%'er LOL bets on this site 10.5%+ popular vote is 97 NO etc etc
Yeah, if you have access to Euro sporting books, that’s probably a lower-fee betting option. Good thing about PI are the Qanon cranks who skew some of the betting lines, although since they stopped running indictments markets, there’s far less value there.