Bovada is pretty good and there is tons of free money on popular vote and specific states
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NV, NH, and MI look like good value of states not already mentioned.
I half-maxed WI (pro-tip you can get $850 down on the Yes D and also the No R, or vice versa). For some reason No R was at 61c but Yes D was at 64c. AZ is the same way. But WI consistently polls in the Biden +8 to +10 range. 61c (or even 64c) is a ludicrous line.
Ohio at 36c for Biden looking good
So does Michigan at 69c.
I wonder how much the debates will be news in the 24/7 news cycle we’re living through
Lol i checked the “will hillary run for president in 2020?” discussion And it’s still mostly the same qanon kooks posting in there all day every day that still havent given up hope. My god it’s like a disease.
Unfortunately, there are no longer Hillary or indictments markets where they can be exploited.
WI was +6.5% Hillary average in 2016. I have to do some on the ground research here pretty soon before making a wager (yes they’re a little different, biden is hitting 50) but I’m a bit of a nit here.
Michigan should be good, I think there’s better underdog wagers for dems than Ohio though. (though rasmussen just released a poll today saying Biden +4)
Trump loses any state he won, yes is 82 on PI. This is a bit of the same play on michigan with a backdoor elsewhere if things really hit the fan but ffs, how.
Wice made money on Bitcoin and poker, he is a politics fish and ran good winning his Trump bets. Here’s the post he made in the Trump presidency prediction thread, see if you still think he knew what he was talking about after reading this:
The following is speculation:
The stock market is propped up by 0% rates. It will crash slowly in a huge bubble that threatens the dollar. Bitcoin will reach an ATH. Trump will mostly be blamed initially, but some will point to his prescient comments about the market. However, the short of it is that people will rally behind Trump. Social security and Medicare will be affected substantially. Trump will eventually finger and take on the Fed through historic speeches. If he doesn’t die like many before him who have challenged central banking, then he will curtail the system whereby the govt lends money from private banks instead of just printing it themselves. He will also invest heavily in infrastructure. These two things will lead to enormous American prosperity.
Trump will also make inner cities better, in terms of crime, education, and unemployment. He won’t go after gay marriage, drugs, or abortion at a supreme court or federal level, with the exception that he may legalize all or a substantial class of drugs in his second term. ISIS will be defeated swiftly, and standstill relations between Russia will improve. America will no longer be involved in fighting in 7 countries as they are now. NATO will be renegotiated, or the current terms will be enforced better than they are now.
Healthcare outcomes re insurance will improve, but only a little. Education outcomes for K-8 will improve substantially. Race relations will be better, and people slowly over time will shift their opinion and applaud his “unifying” rhetoric. His success will merit a political dynasty, and he will easily win a second term, in part due to getting large numbers of the black and other minority votes. His opponent, who will not be a crony or corrupt, will be seen and labeled as ineffective, putting the country back into gridlock that we’ve worked hard to jostle it from, and that’s what the race will be decided on (assuming he’s alive of course.)
The biggest clue is the FBI. If the FBI finds the massive level of corruption in the Clinton Foundation and many people go down, then Trump is more likely to do better things. If only a couple people go down, then people are “playing ball” and it’s more likely to be status quo.
People will claim their opposition was just politicking (or won’t even recall having been staunchly opposed to Trump) and won’t have to answer for their uninformed comments like “the world is doomed”.
I don’t really understand why Biden is so long, but I’m not going to bet it just yet. If it’s just weight of irrational money then that probably won’t change prior to the election, so I don’t think there’s any hurry and I can just wait and see what happens.
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I’d say it probably is weight of irrational money, because the popular vote market demonstrates that politics markets just being completely wrong is possible, and because the betting odds took a turn after the RNC for no apparent reason. Like as far as I can tell the polls did not tighten, or at any rate not enough to make a substantial difference in the projected outcomes. “More clueless people started thinking about the election” seems like a heavy fave as a reason why odds shifted.
The only explanation for the current POTUS to win odds is that the market has incorporated the heavy likelihood of effective cheating. The more probable explanation is that Trump button mashers are massively distorting the market.
Some of both. You would think most of the comments on Predict markets are just trolls or people trying to sway the market if you were asleep the last 4 years. Nope, they are (mostly) real.
Amazing. A masterpiece of stupidity.
I just noticed that 538’s model gives Trump a 15% chance of winning the popular vote, which seems crazily high to me, but even at that betting Biden is still profitable at market prices.
They give Biden 76% to win the electoral college, which sounds about right. 538 was one of the better modellers in 2016, this stuff is Nate’s bread and butter.
As someone else noted, WI closed at Clinton +6.5 on the RCP average and she lost by 0.7 points. The current RCP average is Biden +6.4. Gun to head of course I bet the Biden side but it’s not anything like FREE MONEY. Those Midwest states can throw up some weird results.
IMO the best bet on the board is probably GA.REP as they flat out rigged the election in 2018 and have a Republican governor and will probably do it again. Even if they don’t, Biden probably just straight up loses. There’s a life-hedge aspect as well, either you win money or Georgia goes blue.
Both of these, plus plenty of people got burned in the 2016 election and are probably shy about betting heavily on the Democrats in 2020.
Yeah I don’t think is FREE MONEY (part of the reason I only half-maxed it for now), but I think the “Clinton was where biden is now and lost” analysis is on the weaker side.
For one, the underdog winning once doesn’t make it more likely the next time. For another most pollsters are weighting by education now which was a smart move, and tbh I imagine pollsters (and everyone, really) have over-corrected from 2016. Last, WI did throw out Scott Walker in 2018, and the polling largely did fine in 2018. I know Trump wasn’t on the ballot in 2018 but still. And the last… lightest bit of analysis is that Biden just doesn’t have the same horseshit Clinton had to deal with (sexism mostly, I’m sure). While Clinton really struggled to connect with white voters in the rust belt, Biden just doesn’t have the same weakness.
None of the bets are free money, really (other than like, LOL CLinton is still non zero to get the D nom) but the markets are pretty clearly wrong in a lot of ways and places.Kind of debating about individual state markets vs. looking for creative ways to get more down on Biden to win.
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the model is trash (edit–sigh, looks like they cleaned up pictures on the fivey fox page a bit, some of those were literal LOL before)
If you look at the outcomes it’s spitting out, most of them are completely absurd.
I don’t think he’s trying to do anything other than half ass it enough so no matter what happens he won’t be the guy who gets shit on.
Trump wins more than 50% of the popular voteRegardless of whether he wins the Electoral College 11 in 100
Do you know how many votes have to get thrown out for this, lol.
Florida is still a ******** though. So many R’s move there from blue land that it might end up always being that carrot for dems where they just lose by a percent every god damn time because of that.
Lol