I wouldn’t touch Trump at 46% but am still super pleased with having 2550 on the Pop vote and would still add if it got back up to the low 40s again. The simple fact that the pop vote is 27 while the gen is only 46 means that shits way off.
At one point the pop vote was 44 and the gen was 49 so i guess its figuring things out.
I am deathly afraid of a hispanic/woman “law and order” panic vote surge that could move the needle, just saying.
Biden is still the market fave, though I’m not sure there’s much value in Trump for Pres at the prices I posted.
There are always so many unknown things yet to happen that can sway the election, and it looks to me as if most of them will probably favour Trump.
He fully bought into Qanon theories and thought Hillary had Parkinsons. So yeah, I’m gonna chalk his winning up to being a fish who got lucky.
lol ok he misread the flop and thought he was getting it in with two pair when in fact he had the NFD and odds anyway.
@BadPokerAnalogy where are you?
Also, Predictit isn’t really like most betting markets in that theres a massive personality cult making giant bets on Qanon nonsense. The indictment markets were a great example of that.
I ignore PI and use Betfair. I looked into it when it an arb between the two was available but the $800 PI limit and huge fees made in not worth the effort.
Well that’s why you miss out on the real batshit crazy markets.
One of the euro books and it might be Betfair has screwed up senate rules as they count bernie/king as independents so there’s probably an edge in betting R to keep the senate there since dems have to get to 53 (50 also doesn’t count).
You can probably still bet Hillary NO at like .07, PI limits are so low the insanity persists and there is literal free money if the time investment and rake aren’t prohibitive for you.
it’s .05, .02 in the POTUS market. If you’re only going to bet for this election you have to pass on it there due to fees, sad.
biden to not drop out in 2 months -650 bovada
I guess there’s some chance he gets covid/poisoned/“fell” out of a third story window but PI was -1000 last I looked not including the fees.
It’s almost like there are a bunch factors Nate is not considering. 538 going to go bonkers when Trump “receives” over 80% of the popular vote. Hopefully Nate will include phony plebiscite referenda possibilities in his future modeling.
Bill Barr is not smart. Literally any criminal looks smart when they are the top law enforcement officer.
https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1301270311388803073?s=21
In what Universe does Trump get 80% of the popular vote?
2024?
He’s drawing live.
one where mail in ballots don’t count
Most especially including blatant cheating. Like, ldo Trump is a massive dog to win a fair election, but that’s not what’s going to happen.