rake is higher but more morons on the site. Not as good as the old days though.
not that great state lines, CA -2000 for 5% is pretty free however.
yes -475 is 475 to win 100 here.
Trump is now favored on some books.
most of their odds you can get better on other books though
predictit for pop vote right now is better than 475 I think even with fees? (I’m not gonna look this up)
it’s pretty wild, polls still haven’t moved much but everyone is assuming they’ll shift hard for trump. (though a recent study came out suggesting trump supporters actually do answer the phone for those polls five or so points less than dems which also moved the line, because anything real or fake that’s positive for R’s gets hammered on their facebook pages and everything else gets ignored)
(I’d still avoid betting dem in MN, WI, Maine as I’m trying to play this cautiously now that I screwed up having too much on it before the conventions) Might be some value on dem in TX though, I still think it’s 4 years off but it’s beaten down to 4-1 in some areas and beto only lost by a few.)
The likely cause of these insane lines is Trump button mashers who played bad and got there in 2016. The popular vote is 99% (D), there is no rational basis for that line, it is absurd.
The less likely but possible explanation is that the current lines are somewhat efficient because of vote suppression, silent Trump voters and/or Trump’s ability to throw the election to the courts and win.
I’m not betting on the election winner, only electoral vote and individual states.
well it’s the riots and the assumption people will vote R’s as a result. yes, a lot are button mashers but it’s psychological and has some merit since it happened before. Like a lot of trump strategies, he stole them from when it worked for someone else.
It doesn’t really help my general panic, but i work with some of the sharpest bettors, most happen to be rwnj (there’s a correlation there but thats a different topic) and they are attacking these lines (on biden’s side obv).
I can’t even work out from these posts who everyone seems to think is the same “free money” that caused several 2+2 gamblers to disappear almost 4 years ago.
Almost every single person who bet on Trump did so saying his public persona was just an act and he would move to the middle.
People like wice were wrong about every single thing but got there on the river.
Wice bets on politics for a living, appears to be very successful at it and has been loading up on Trump for Pres for a while now, so unless he’s just been running hot for a long time (possible but less likely than just being a good bettor) I’m quite happy I’m on the same side of the bet again (at better odds than those available now).
Even if you think Wice got there by the river, it’s because he read it well imo and was drawing with good odds.
I’m pretty sure he didn’t bet on politics for a living, he just had a large br built from poker. Every post he made about Donald Trump was wrong, and absurdly so. Nothing against the guy, but if you thought he was a secret genius playing 4D chess, you have issues on this subject.
Nearly every post he made said Trump would win by piovoting left/to the middle.
He made a lot of money on the 2016 election and subsequent bitcoin rise. Good for him, but there are few respectable posters with worse posting history.
I don’t remember any of his posts and probably didn’t read them.
I do know from many years of sports betting that when the voices bragging about free money starts to reach a crescendo it’s time to seriously consider opposing whatever it is.
