What markets is Yang even on anymore?
Bernie Texas seems silly. He’s under 50c with 20pct in and a 6pt lead?
I just bought about $450 at 50c, agree. Concern is that most of it is early vote and the late vote is going to skew toward Biden more, but hard to pass up on 50c w/ a 6 pt lead and 28% in.
had an okay night in the $ world, screwed up one state pretty hard though and LOL my bloomberg at 2/3c fliers. Those were definitely good in the states I picked if the election was 2 days ago.
Shame I didn’t keep the max on my bloomberg not winning a primary $ though sad!
sadly, missed at least several hundred not having more on the site–wasn’t just the free yang $, but there were several markets I would’ve hit harder (bernie’s delegate number, warren not winning a primary, bloomberg dropping out by end of the month)
just realized i have a huge sweat on bernie to win exactly 5 states at +25000
Unless I get a comeback, he’s gonna win 4.
Never crossed my mind to bet 4. **** so close to a huge hit tonight despite still having $300 on bernie to win the nom getting completely drilled.
Biden at .75 seems like good value. He’s winning this like 90% of the time, right?
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Per the Social Security Administration, there is a 4.7% chance he dies in the next 12 months. Surely the actual risk is higher given he already has dementia and maybe full blown Alzheimers.
And Coronavirus
Alzheimer’s isn’t going to kill him within the next few months, that takes time.
Thoughts on Kamala Harris at .19? Seems like the natural pick for Biden.
Anything over .15 seems very expensive to me. Lots of options out there.
lol Michelle Obama is at 0.05, did someone give Skalanskii a Predictit account?
Agreed, I’ve started buying NOs on pretty much anyone that spikes. Just wish I would’ve started earlier.
She slammed Biden pretty bad in one of the early debates if that sort of thing matters at all.
Doesn’t matter. Just about every Trump slurper slammed the shit out of him in early 2016. Now, it’s like it never happened. This is not a uniquely Trump phenomenon, but he is the clearest example of how little it matters.
Dems really could/should get a lot more mileage out of stuff like Kellyanne Conway going on about what an idiot Trump is, but they suck at this game.
IIRC, even Biden at some point made some sort of subtly racist comment about Obama being a clean cut well spoken black dude (I forget the exact comment, but he caught heat for it when he made it), and he got the VP slot despite it.
“What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2020 election?” is the softest market right now. 30% chance the Rs take the House and the Senate? I’m maxing out the NO bet here. D House and R Senate seems like good value at .41.
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D house is 68 in the individual market where you can max both yes and R no. PI markets are always a percent or two worse on the combined ones than the individual ones. Probably because only super degens or sharper people have the amount to max out over 2k. Also more than one line confuses people. (and of course NO is often a few percent ahead of YES literally in a headsup bracket)
Amy surging in the VP menu market, up to 28c
she’s surging because she said something that alluded to joining the team rather than just simply endorsing, also she’s still campaigning for him so yeah she might really have gotten it. Just meh, and he needed better than meh.
I took NO on her too soon, should’ve waited till she was in the news. I’m basically against everyone in that market hoping on the sweet payout for anyone else.