Your definition of could easily happen is way different than mine.
Getting over 10-1 on the entire position. Obviously it isnt likely but I’ll take my chances
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Well at least I only had micro positions.
I just hope I did indeed talk people out of betting on bernie in SC. (as a reminder on this board, despite disagreeing on candidates, I’m not your enemy, I really was trying to help you)
went with a softball approach rather than my usual fastball, dunno if it worked.
Thought Steyer might drop out tonight, but with so many markets and not having a pro bankroll on the site couldn’t get much on it. oh well.
For those wondering why the polls were so far off, clyburn’s endorsement was at least 10 points and that was after those polls, for those wondering why there were close polls, that’s because they were poor ones.
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I have to believe Sanders’ chances in NC and VA on Tuesday are extremely slim. Both states have him walking a tightrope between Biden and Bloomberg where I believe the conservative vote will swing to Biden after his dominant win in SC. Currrent RCP averages:
VA: Sanders 25, Bloomberg 19.5, Biden 18.5
NC: Biden 25, Sanders 22, Bloomberg 17
Neither state is very well polled. I guess I could see him surviving in VA sometimes, NC, dude there is just no way. The most recent poll had Biden +8, honestly that Biden is only trading at 71c is amazing to me.
Edit: Throw Tennessee on the list, Biden 75c there, the state has not been polled at all since July last year, again the idea of Sanders winning that state is ludicrous to me.
Biden was 85 where I dumped all my shares on him/and no’s on bern, thought that was a little too far. Bloomberg still is going to get at least 10% I’d say.
You can get NO on yang at 99 in CA right now because PI is hilarious sometimes. and after I buy it, it’s 98 NO on yang in CA. standard, that totally makes sense. why not make it 85 while you’re all at it.
edit–Yang is in 2nd place in the CA market on PI right now, I’m a witness to this.
Surprisingly to me, they already paid out Yang to not win a primary. Damn that was like 97 still.
So Pete dropped out before the Iowa winner market was settled on PI. He’s currently priced at $0.86 YES. Not sure if theres mo ey to be made on either side of this, but interesting dynamic now lol.
Pete won the recount, it was so close or whatever that the AP still hasn’t called it, Bernie is challenging the results and now Pete dropped out. I’m on Pete YES, bought it at 74c after the election. The swings have been crazy, it’s been back in the 40s and as high as like 95-97 iirc, I tried to get out at 97 but couldn’t get the sell order through.
That market dropped because they think Pete isn’t fighting, but Bernie’s side is challenging with (seriously) the argument that only what they wanted should be recounted and everything Pete wanted recounted shouldn’t count because only Bernie’s side is allowed to get anything recounted. I thought that kind of total bullshit is something only a trump lawyer would argue, wtf.
Iowa is still a god damn mess. (the people on twitter most cited on keeping up on it and acted like they were correcting things are also making rather large errors themselves, that’s how much of a mess caucuses are)
I don’t know when this damn thing will end, bernie’s camp won’t let it go, PI who the hell knows, etc but I kinda don’t get how this isn’t a yes in the end.
This market has moved so much so many times it’s already the most absurd market that will never be topped.
Agreed. I think Pete is likely to still fight it, as well. I’m sure he has some resources, and having Iowa winner on the resume is pretty key to his political future.
Anyone on any lines today? I kinda like Bernie to win MA and Texas.
I put a grand down on Biden for the nomination. Got in a little late at 1.74 but still think it’s good.
AZ flipping blue now? What in Sam Hill is going on?
Biden polls much better than Sanders in AZ, so that’s probably the deal.
AZ is a moderate state on both sides weirdly enough. May depend if latino voters in AZ are more like NV voters or more moderate like they are in TX.
Anyway, there’s an Andrew Yang fairy out there in many states (TN might be the only one that isn’t sold out for today though) if you have $ just sitting in your account and you’re not doing anything else with it today.
Also data 4 progress, which ironically was the best pollster the first three states, some people are theorizing they’re just making up polls since some underlying things in them don’t make sense. (ie, their TX poll has even black vs latino which for a TX poll is ridiculous). Maybe they’re setting polls hoping to bet against people believing them idk. (there’s definitely a few sketchy polls out there, change research appears to be rasmussen for the bernie crowd for instance and I don’t know what the hell that steyer/klob NV poll was other than maybe the worst I’ve ever seen?)
edit–in hindsight, bernie lost VA by 30 in 16, how in the world was he leading that state or SC (50 points) in the market. Big opportunity missed sigh
I guess I’m a little spooked, CA didn’t go for bernie last time so maybe it won’t be by a huge margin as people think.
I think Bernie has a good day today and its his last good one. If he gets back up to ~60 I’m dumping 1/2 of what I got on him I think. A Bloomberg drop out only helps Biden and I doubt Bloomberg has the stomach for this if he doesn’t win shit today.
I’m seriously selling Yang NO’s to buy Yang NO’s atm. Have to give up free money for more free money because I don’t have ENOUGH ON THIS SITE APPARENTLY.
I think the play tonight is to buy up Bernie Nom shares once it tanks when the East/South share results first and everyone freaks out.
everyone has this thought so it’s probably already priced in
who knows though, so many people are super reactionary
also gl getting your wager in when those servers lag hard but yeah I’m doing this too
Sometimes I wonder if I really want to live the life where I can just feel like going on predictit on super tuesday and straight up punt 50k on Andrew Yang.
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