Kept my whole share. Good bet Cuse!
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I got some back in at 93/94, trying to unload it all at 99 to get more dry powder for the rest of the debate. Market seems to be heading for 99c.
Was a good night for me for once. Was able to sell Klob at 15 early and Bloomberg at 70 when he had that big lead.
I got into Bloomberg at like 9c-12c, but didn’t wait long enough and only got the 2.5x return. Could have scored big on that one. Did well, though. Hit on the Cuba/Castro bet and the Steyer least speaking time bet, rode a couple people up on the speaking time market.
I got completely owned last debate so feels good to get that money back. Congrats on the wins. The steyer bet was a lock.
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Thanks… Yeah I got completely owned 2-3 debates ago by a combination of excessive risk-taking and runbad. The last two have gone well so I’m pretty happy with that. Like any form of gambling, there are some swings, but it’s a skill game.
Bernie to win SC is at 19c after the latest polling. Anyone else thinking that number is wayyyy to low?
Sample size issue but the +18 biden one was the only accurate SC poll 4 years ago. That one has Tom Steyer ahead of Bernie.
bernie is doing better among minorities but it’ll be tough for him to get there in this state in the end–he’s behind in literally every poll.
At least you didn’t get in at 39.
I have no idea why you’d think this.
Bernie’s RCP average vs first round primary vote:
IA: 23.0% / 24.7%
NH: 28.7% / 25.7%
NV: 32.5% / 34.0%
He’s been pretty much dead on his polling numbers. Biden underperformed by 5 points in IA, 2.5 points in NH and then overperformed by 1.6% in NV. Meanwhile in 2016, SC polling closed with an RCP average of Clinton 52.8% and she actually got 73.4% of the vote. Here we have polls showing Biden up by 15 and 18 points and an RCP average showing him up by double digits. He had a fine debate and Sanders had an unremarkable one. All the signs point to him storming home in SC, I don’t think it’s going to be particularly close.
BTW, when I said this:
Biden was 15c, he is now two days later trading at 23c, so he already got that 8c bump and SC hasn’t even happened yet. I still think he’s an OK buy at that price, but it’s not as good as it was.
It seems increasingly likely to me that Biden will be the chosen establishment guy heading into Super Tuesday, off the back of what I expect to be a strong showing in SC. Whether Bloomberg voters get the memo on this is another matter. It would be pretty funny if Bloomberg dropped out before Super Tuesday and endorsed Biden, but I think that would be too humiliating for him to stomach.
Having thought about it I’d still buy Biden at 23c, if he wins SC by 5+ points I think he’ll be north of 30c heading into Super Tuesday, Sanders will be like 53c, Bloomberg like 12, and the rest will be diehards holding on at like 3 to 4 cents. Also, if Sanders has a particularly weak showing, underperforming his polling (which could happen if the polls showing Steyer polling strongly turn out to be correct) then that will redound to the benefit of Biden. If the results are like Biden 37%, Sanders 19%, Steyer 20%, which is within the bounds of reason, Biden will probably jump to like 40c at the expense of Sanders.
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fwiw, I still don’t believe Biden can beat Bernie in delegates even if Bernie bagels SC. Bloomberg just eats too much of his vote elsewhere in states biden needs like AR, VA, NC, etc. (bloom might seriously still win a few states, his poll numbers didn’t really move even after lol debates and super tuesday is only 3 days after SC)
After Biden wins SC, he’ll probably be overvalued on PI in too many states. Bernie’s odds still won’t change for me after SC as he’s still a lock out west (except Washington and maybe zona). The biggest thing is if there is a moderate challenger within range, NY/PA probably don’t go to bernie later on and only then maybe someone’s close enough to have an unfortunate convention cluster****.
The question is whether voters in Super Tuesday states desert Bloomberg for Biden if Biden has a strong showing in SC. Taking VA as an example, in the Data for Progress poll, voters 45+ are split 24/24 for Bloomberg/Biden, but Biden’s faves are miles higher (net +43 compared to +21 for Bloomers) and only 45% said their mind was made up. I think a mass desertion of olds to Biden is possible if he gets a good result in SC, he’s going to be deluged with positive press.
Biden has no chance to get a majority or even a plurality of delegates, his path is to become the anointed establishment guy and get handed the nomination at a brokered convention.
Biden now a little overvalued on PI overall but what a difference a week makes–wasn’t even a week ago the entire map was bernie.
Sherrod Brown 2 or 3% to win the nomination now
jesus
Stonks!
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I maxed that one since i had already maxed against hillary, yang, tulsi and steyer and am still down because I dumped my previous max on him to never win a state at a loss and didn’t bet on it enough back when it got down to low 30’s.
fwiw, Biden +9 in SC over bern according to the best pollster so far this election season. Pete 13 being the shocking number–who the bleep is voting pete there.
Enormous leads for Biden in other polls as well - +20 in one poll, +16 in another. Going to win there very very easily.
I don’t think Biden is overvalued, I think he’s fairly priced, maybe undervalued if anything. 538’s delegate tracker gives him a 1 in 3 chance to win a plurality of delegates, no ratfucking required.
Yech, Biden legit seems to be bouncing back what with Bloomberg cratering. Think he gets SC for sure and then Super Tuesday will be a nail biter.
Took Bernie NO in SC at 90c just now for ~$300. 538 has it at 97% and all the recent polling has Biden absolutely crushing.
Taking all the 0-6% mov range for 1-2c each. Could easily happen although is obviously a long shot