Yeah I actually think Biden is not a bad bet to win SC, but what I would do instead is bet Biden for the nomination at this point with a view to laying him off later. If he finishes a respectable 2nd in SC, which seems like the lower bound of what could happen, you’ll have to take a small L, but if he scores up an emphatic victory in SC, I could easily see his stock rising 8c, which will get you the same return on your money as betting him to win SC with a lot less downside risk.
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I don’t think Biden gets enough delegates to win the nomination either but I didn’t fire on that yet for exactly that reason.
I think Biden probably takes SC. The Clintons and their allies have a solid ground game in the South, they’ve spent decades building up networks there.
Betting on Biden to win SC is a great life hedge. If Bernie wins there than the entire establishment is in disarray; it’s all lost for the eDems. There is no case not giving Bernie the nomination other than blatant establishment riggage.
Right now the Predictit map is:
Looks like bettors have already written off Bloomberg taking FL, they think Biden is going to maybe sweep the South, which puts him in a strong position for a brokered convention. Also, Hillary being in fourth place ahead of Warren, Pete, Klob, Steyer, and Tulsi is hilarious to me.
In all seriousness, it is amazing that a Jewish guy is a lock to win in places like VA, KY, and NC.
CA will mostly be done with voting before SC. Bernie will win CA and likely TX and SC will be forgotten about after Super Tuesday.
Also, Hillary being in fourth place ahead of Warren, Pete, Klob, Steyer, and Tulsi is hilarious to me.In all seriousness, it is amazing that a Jewish guy is a lock to win in places like VA, KY, and NC.
In all honesty the one thing I’m going to remember about this time years later is the absolute nutballs on PI that thought that hilldawg was going to be a thing in the 2020 elections.
Bernie to win SC @ $0.39 still seems a little low. Maybe it’s just my Bernie bro bias showing though.
2 NC polls today, one 3 way tie with bloom/biden/bernie, other one biden +3. It’s bernie’s best southern state but PI had hard red a lot of states like that one that just plain made no sense to be that high. Four in the last two weeks, one other sanders +4, the other one a giant tie.
In other words, Bernie might be favored but it should be pink not red.
VA is at least 5% off on PI vs where I have it. KY is red because it’s in may.
Most of the south and east US is still 5 points off too far in bernie’s favor but it’s not completely absurd like it was a few days ago with OK hard red and TN and whatever else. I don’t believe MO is hard red either.
in the end, Bloomberg didn’t get impacted by the debate in the polls, despite more people not liking him.
lol at “very bad news for Joe Biden”, cherry picking a poll and still having it be Biden +4 is not very impressive. The PPP poll with Biden +15 was in the field 23-24 Feb, so well post-debate, and had a larger sample than the NBC/Marist poll. About the only good point Cilizza makes is that a lot of Biden voters say they might vote for another candidate. But in the very large sample CBS/YouGov poll conducted 20th-22nd, when asked which candidate would be their second choice, more voters nominated Biden (24%) and Steyer (23%) than Sanders (17%). This despite Sanders topping the list of people who had impressed them in recent debates.
We’ll see if Sanders has a good debate today, but right now I think Biden is just going to win.
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Yougov polls are weird because they always overrate warren.
Yeah the market correctly predicted this. I was going to suggest betting Bloomberg ITT just after that debate, but when I checked PI, he had already recovered to the same level as he had been pre-debate.
The debate today will be a bit more consequential as it’s the last one before both SC and Super Tuesday, so I’d expect high ratings and high salience in the minds of voters.
MN odds with bern/klob should be the other way around. (NC is now pink, me and my big mouth lol)
TX is weird, bern crushing latinos but TX isn’t anywhere near as left as western US dems are so idk. I’m avoiding it.
The price is better on No for Bernie to finish 2nd in SC than it is on him winning.
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Anyone liking anything for the debate tonight?
Im going with a couple longer shots. Have 1k shares each of klob least time and bloomberg most for 9c ea. Feel like getting over 10-1 here is value but Im prob a fish.
“No” on 0 debaters saying “Cuba” or “Castro” at 90¢ seems free to me
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I’ve got a big amount on Steyer least speaking time at 66c, it’s down to 64c. I think he’s 85-90% to speak the least, maybe more. Seems crazy to me that it’s not priced at least at 80c.
In for $300
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Given how this debate is going I’d be grabbing some Biden SC.
I had 62 but not a big amount, lol me fail here.
I dumped out of like 60% of it at 85c… Facepalm.