All the ad money that could have been spent on ST has already been spent by now. No reason for anyone to drop out. I’m expecting them all to stay in, with the one wildcard being Steyer. He went hard in NV/SC and he needs a qualifying poll tomorrow to make the SC debate. If he doesn’t make the SC debate he’s pretty toast, so I could imagine him dropping. He probably doesn’t have the sunk cost feel from ST ad spending as the other candidates do because he’s so wealthy, but he also has nothing to lose.
Tammy up to 14c
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Tulsi for VP up to 12
what the fuck
I mean sure, if bernie is really trying to lose the general election.
Think Bernie will more likely pick a loyalist but she’s a better VP pick than warren.
I have maxed Tulsi/Hillary/Biden/Klob/Pete NO for VP. (hillary/biden are 0 anyway and the last two bernie is never picking)
God help us if it’s Tulsi. Authoritarian left vs authoritarian right.
It’s not gonna be Tulsi, it was never gonna be Tulsi, and it’s stupid to say it might be Tulsi (or Marianne).
I’m keeping my powder dry. If Bernie does well on Super Tuesday, the Tulsi VP market could go way up because lol Tulsi stans.
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Bovada continues to offer hilariously fantastic Bernie odds because their customer base is idiot MAGA dipshits. It is literally free money, you can arbitrage at non-dumbass heavy books.
Tell me why I shouldn’t be all in on Bernie to win SC?
Isn’t Biden ahead in the polls?
Because this is the time Biden will get his first ever primary win. He’s due.
Bernie @ $0.39 seems like decent value right now. Could probably sell for a profit sometime before final results.
Putting $10 on Bernie winning FL. If Bloomberg has another terrible debate tomorrow, it could put Bernie over the top.
Devil’s advocate would be Biden’s ahead in the polls. Bernie’s first round vote in NV still in low to mid 30s. Few polls since debate might be showing Warren moving up a bit. Steyer might pull more from Bernie than Biden in SC?
I’m still long Bernie in SC, but have kept to a relatively small position.
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The Hispanic turnout in Nevada and reading the chat below the Pop trade has maintained my confidence for making this trade - but who knows what kind of weird shit can happen in the next 8 months.
Most of them are the same as predictit (and every book I have is copying PI at this point basically), which is full of bernie dumbasses.
the real bad books are european ones but I can’t bet there, sad.
edit–of course if you want Utah or Vermont literal free money go for it. and probably colorado/california.
pile those winnings on dems abroad the week after. Bernie’s a lock there too.
Bernie is in 3rd place in all the FL polls.
Biden has led all the SC polls despite Steyer spending a hundred million for just under 20% of Biden’s votes.
That why I only bet $10.
Biden slightly outperformed his polling in NV, including among whites, and still had pretty heavy support there among blacks. SC obviously has easily the largest black population of any state to vote so far and Biden leads in the polls there, including a Biden +15 poll which just dropped, which is probably an outlier but yeah. There’s no reason to think Biden won’t win the state imo.
Bernie is doing better with minorities than he did in 16 but HRC beat polling in SC by nearly 20 points. +15 might not be an outlier at all.
(sadly, if that happens the idiots here will think it’s because of cheating, in a state bernie lost by 50 points 4 years ago)
Data 4 progress has been excellent polling so far this season so watch for that one.