NH GOP seems kind of unlikely.
Betting DEM NO in ME-02 @ 75c seems like a good deal, it’s that low because in 2018 the Democrat was able to win by 1.04% (after distribution of the ranked-choice voting they have there; he lost on primary vote). In 2016 though, Trump carried the district by more than 10 points. Obviously turnout was lower in 2018. When all the MAGA chuds show up again for their godking, it’s hard to imagine the 2016 result changing by 10 points.
Welcome to Predictit, my friend.
lol, that’s nothing. I think the McCabe market was in the .60s at its peak. Qanon is way more bashit than the Ron Paul cultists could ever dream of becoming.
Was posting in the Dem primary thread about Tammy Baldwin for VP and swore I posted in here too but I guess not. Picked up 1k shares at 5c a few days ago and she’s already 11c
good call
locks of small money
Bernie Vermont 98, Pete NO 2. <2 weeks.
Iowa 1% margin at 96.
God knows when PI will resolve that one though.
Can you elaborate on this theory and the extent to which you think it extends outside NH? I think you could argue it for specifically New Hampshire and possibly Maine. They’re swingier than the rest of the Northeast and very white.
I’d suggest taking Iowa < 1% margin at like 94. I bought it at 96 the night of the election or the day after and it’s swung to 94 a few times, because PredictIt lol… Could take a while, yes.
I took some profit on the Liz 2nd NV market when it got up around 20 or 21 cents (I was in for .06) and sold her to win at 3c and bought it back again at 2c so reduced my cost-basis there. I’ll be at the poker table all day as results come in so this one will be tricky to manage. I have 680 shares of her in second and 3,000 shares to win. Will look to take profit if it becomes available in the to-win market, and maybe leave a small freeroll.
Bernie at 92 to win NV seems high to me just due to the possibility of the results turning into a mess.
What do we think about Roger Stone pardon during 2020, -175?
I think no if he gets to be out free during his bullshit appeal, which seems likely
He’s probably not going to pardon him before the appeal process, so that eats up some time… Probably not right before the election either. So even if you think it’s a lock to happen it’s probably just as likely to be Jan 2021 as Dec 2020 imo…
I thought so too and actually did sell my 14c shares (WHY DIDN"T I MAX THAT OMG), but he could’ve been declared the winner in about 5 minutes. Nevada doesn’t have anywhere near the rural votes Iowa does.
Trump just does pardons whenever he feels like it to whoever he feels like it. He usually goes in batches which is why NO right now is probably the play while it’s in the news, sell it when it settles down.
Any results from NV? Curious why Biden 2nd is going crazy on PI
The Steyer to finish in top 3 in NV market is swinging quite a bit right now. Probably can turn a nice profit if your timing is right.
Bernie to win Utah pretty much free money at this point at 91.
I still don’t think he’s as hard red in some areas as PI does (Oklahoma for one, but maybe i just torched all my Nevada $ lol me) but Utah/NM/west coast are basically locks for bernie (NM is in June, that’s why that’s not 90 already)
Nevada is pretty hard urban over rural compared to most states, outside of obviously VT, bernie might not get a bigger blowout anywhere until after everyone else concedes
Will 90% of Nevada precincts report results by noon (PT) Feb. 23?
I’m irrationally upset I missed this market at 15 cents for no.
Trump is so unpredictable with this shit, who knows. It’s a total crapshoot. Imagine if I told you a year ago that Blago and Kerrick would get pardons but Manafort wouldn’t. What odds would you set on that? I can 100% see Trump pardoning Stone next week and also I can 100% see him letting Stone go off to jail. The man’s brain is a congealed mass of tapioca pudding; I’m not putting any bets on this kind of thing.
Blago pardon was a PI market till a few months ago.
I’m not gonna say it’s a total crapshoot, I figure, odds go up with, being on fox news, helping trump, pleading for one on fox news, they’re crimes trump has committed and is committing, was on the apprentice, how easily will trump get away with said pardon.
oh right, and friends of friends (ie guiliani), random person at mar a lago asked him
Thoughts on whether any of the remaining candidates drop out before South Carolina?
Biden
Bloomberg
Buttigieg
Gabbard
Klobuchar
Sanders
Steyer
Warren
Obviously staying in: Biden, Bloomberg, Sanders, Buttigieg
I assume staying in til they run out of money for the Fox News appearances and grifting: Tulsi
Dropping Sometime Soon, Perhaps? Klobuchar, Warren, Steyer
But Steyer has spent millions on Super Tuesday and is polling in third in SC, Warren has had some good fundraising recently and Klobuchar and Warren both have their home states on Super Tuesday.
Trying to predict this is tough, but I have felt like behind the scenes at some point the DNC/establishment was going to lean very hard on people to drop out so that the moderate wing can coalesce around one candidate. If that’s the case, they have to wait until after South Carolina, right? If Biden doesn’t win it, he’s not the guy, so you pick from the others. If Biden wins it, you lean on the others then… But the flip side of that is that it’s tougher for him to win with Warren, Klobuchar and Buttigieg still in.
But now I’m starting to wonder if the DNC/establishment strategy isn’t going to have to shift? Their goal is to defeat Bernie, and I just can’t figure out who can do it head to head unless Biden crushes SC and thus has a path through the South. If they decide nobody can, does the establishment just make its goal to hold Bernie down to like 40% of pledged delegates and coordinate a shadow campaign among the other campaigns? Biden gets the South, Klobuchar gets the Great Plains, Buttigieg gets the midwest and some of the northeast, Warren gets the Pacific Northwest, Massachusetts, and some of the northeast? Bloomberg spends like crazy on negative Bernie ads everywhere and gets like Florida to himself?
Getting back to the PredictIt point, is the field pretty much locked for South Carolina at this point regardless of the strategies at play? I just can’t come up with anyone I see dropping out.