Wish I was as certain as you guys that Bloomberg doesn’t have a shot. Per Morning Consult’s tracking poll, he is the #1 second choice of Buttigieg supporters and #2 for Biden supporters behind Sanders (23% to 28%). He’s third in the race and rising rapidly. In a Quinnipiac poll released Feb 10, Bloomberg’s black support nationally was at 22 motherfucking percent, topping Sanders at 19 and behind only the rapidly-tanking Biden on 27. This in a poll that had Bloomberg at only 7% overall. Bloomberg was also the top second choice for Biden supporters, 21% compared to the second-place Sanders on 19%.
Freak result? Here are a couple other recent polls, I’m quoting black support here:
In both of these, Biden still has a very high vote, but Bloomberg is getting some votes nonetheless. Monmouth’s poll which only breaks out “non white” voters is more encouraging (Sanders 28%, Biden 20%, Bloomberg 12%) but that’s still higher than he polled among the general population in that poll (11%).
So basically this idea that LDO black people will not vote Bloomberg because stop-and-frisk isn’t really shaking out so far, and it especially might not in the conservative South. So far he’s polling at least as well and frequently better among blacks as he does among whites.
The fundamental difference is that Trump was giving a huge group of people something they had been clamoring for but unable to access in a presidential candidate, ever: pure, unfiltered racism.
Bloomberg provides absolutely nothing new or unique and is (or will be) hated by minorities, without whom he can’t win. Also I know it shouldn’t matter (it does) but just look at the fucking guy.
Well, right at the moment he’s polling higher among minorities than whites and in one poll I saw, he had the same unfav % among Dems as Sanders (18%), although his “don’t know” number was higher at 23%.
Maybe when he gets hauled over the coals on stage about his record that will change, but as far as I’m concerned that’s speculation at the moment. He got three terms as mayor in a liberal city, so claims that he is completely unelectable seem dubious, and I guess we’re going to see whether bringing up his record can compete with like a billion dollars worth of TV and Facebook ads.
Edit: Like when he joined the race people, me included, were like “hur hur he will get like 3%” and like $300 million in ads later he is in third place in national polls and is probably going to win Florida at the very least, and now everyone has just moved the goalposts.
This unfortunately. Bloomberg is about to give us a scientific test of the real world limits of campaign spending in the Social Media era. I’m more than a little scared… then again I’m also scared about what the Trump campaigns misinformation campaign’s results are going to be.
Honestly this whole situation is just fuck Mark Zuckerburg.
The thing you have to remember is that not only is Bloomberg carpet bombing his ads, nobody is running counter ads yet. Staying off the debate stage so far has also protected him.
Steyer still has little name recognition though whereas Bloomberg is one of the richest men in the world, was former Mayor of NYC, has his name all over lots of things…
I mean I guess yeah. I think anyone else easily wins the pop vote and maybe even bloomer. But I think his odds of getting the nom at 29 is way overpriced. He has zero values that the average dem voter likes. We’ll see this week at the debate (if he makes it).
Let’s say Bloomberg and Biden are out of the race or buried in the race by then, who do we like? I guess Bernie by default? I feel like he won’t be too popular among Florida Democrats, but then who will even be left in the race at that point?
Why would this be the case? People go “out of the race” because it becomes clear they can’t win and people stop giving them money. Bloomberg has an infinite supply of money.