Anyone else like Biden at 10c for Nevada? I have no faith in Pete or Klob there.
I’m bailing out of “Will Bloomberg win a primary?” at a loss. I think he has a very real shot at AL.
On the plus side, the McCabe market is skyrocketing again, so I’m maxing that out.
I need to stop trying to be clever and just bet against Qanon like I always do.
I’m a little gun-shy about betting on the DOJ upholding the rule of law.
It’s not a bad bet fwiw, IMO. Yeah I thinks Pete’s a no in that neck of the woods until he drops to about 4%
Brokered convention is surging. I feel like after Bernie dominates Nevada this is gonna swing back. There hasn’t been a brokered convention since the 70s i think, and it’s currently trading at 57% YES
Momentum seems to be heavily against fucking him at the convention. If, as seems likely, it’s something like:
Bernie - 45%
Bloomberg- 15%
Klob/ButtiGJGE/Biden/Warren 10% each
They would be committing suicide.
Bloomberg up to 34c to win the nomination, and I put a decent amount on NO. He hasn’t been hit very much yet, and he’s going to get shellacked in the debate for donating big money to the Pat Toomey’s and Lindsey Graham’s of the world, plus stop and frisk, plus the redlining comment… and who knows what else hasn’t been dug up yet. Never mind that he’s basically a Republican and a billionaire.
Bloomberg has zero shot at the nomination
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Some of these markets just get completely unmoored from reality and take flight. I don’t even question it anymore. Sure, Bloomberg is priced at .33, why not. 20% chance McCabe gets indicted, 5% chance the nominee is Hillary, why not. I don’t even know what’s real anymore. Predictit has made me question my grip on relaity.
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Hiillary’s been trading at like, 14% to run lmao
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I don’t think that’s quite free money, but it’s obviously hugely profitable. I also just don’t want to tie up $850 on there for that long when it probably won’t move for a while lol… But at this point, if they get into a brokered convention and the candidates with the most delegates are like Bernie, Bloomberg and Buttigieg… It wouldn’t be crazy to think of the party trying to get someone who didn’t even run to drop in, rather than taking the socialist, the Republican or the guy who can’t get black voters out. In fact, they could even go several ballots in a row without getting any of those three over the line.
I still think Hillary would be the WOAT person to drop in, but that probably means it’s exactly who they’d pick.
Still, a brokered convention where nobody seems appealing has to be a 5% or less event, and then there are at least 5-10 people you could consider as a potential candidate.
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Yea I dunno. All of that seems impossible to me. There’s so many “If this happens, and this happens, and this happens…” and all the “ifs” are all ranging from super unlikely to near-impossible events.
Hillary is 0%, like absolute zero.
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that’s when you read the comments for the true believer crazy conspiracy stuff. True gold.
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She’s a longshot, but I think Warren is undervalued in Nevada. I just bought 3,000 shares at .02 to win and 1,000 shares at .06 to finish second. The latest poll has her in third at 13%, with Steyer, Buttigieg and Klobuchar each at 10-11%. Bernie’s at 25%, Biden at 18%. I think Liz could get a lot of the second-choice votes of non-viable candidates below her… I think people are more likely to go Buttigieg/Klobuchar → Warren than → Biden.
It’s also possible that even if she gets more initial voters in the first round, the media narrative convinces people to support Klobuchar or Buttigieg on re-alignment, but I think that’s less likely in Nevada than in a whiter state.
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Take your profits and buy it again on the next Q conspiracy swing! lol
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How do you make a bet for second place finish?
Yea, definitely looking to buy the pump when trump starts tweeting about mccabe again.
PI has a second place market.
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Found it. Warren definitely in the hunt for second.
https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1228364435204472832?s=20