The other thing is there’s a reasonably high likelihood that some of the first results counted and released favor Pete and swing the markets enough to change your position. I do think Bernie is currently overvalued, even though I think he’s a heavy favorite. I’m hoping to flip my Pete for a profit and switch to Bernie if the first swing is in Pete’s favor.
Got in some money on Klob NO to take second in NH at 89c last night. lol me it’s at like 84 now
Thanks for the reply.
At this point I’d assumed the comments were there FOR angleshooting and funny business.
Ok, so you guys are “day trading” these? Has the lagginess issue been fixed?
I know this is a while ago, but I don’t really understand why you are calling out Nate for this, considering how volatile and fickle the betting markets are. Based on most of the commentary I read on here from people who follow/bet in these markets (I don’t personally) I’d have to guess that they’d generally agree with Nate in that polling is probably much more reliable than a snapshot of the PI market
ty maxing now, literally free money
It depends on the market. The problem for Warren was that she wasn’t second choice for anyone but Sanders and Pete voters, a bunch of polling demonstrated this and it also just made sense if you know who Warren is and who the type of voters she appeals to are. It was pretty clear that there was nowhere votes were coming from to get Warren over the line and that’s why she was priced low. Another example: Biden’s support cratered in Iowa. It’s clear to us as humans that this was always a possibility for Biden, whereas there was zero chance of Sanders’ support cratering in the same way, he has very durable support and a high floor. You won’t get that just looking at polls.
In other markets I’d be more inclined to trust modelling over markets. I think Nate is good at modelling but bad at knowing when models are too general to be helpful (see also: Brazil in the World Cup).
Any of you betting on margin of victory market for NH? Seems like there is money to be made there. I dabbled a bit in 2016 but just deposited for the first time this cycle. Looking for some fun sweats and hopefully a little profit.
My tentative plan tonight is to try to actively trade it as results come in.
My plan as well. I bought a little bit of YES for each of 1-4% up to 8%. Will bank a profit if any of those win.
Klob to get second up to 25% ahhhhhhh
I sold my “No” at like 85 seeing the tank start and was going to get in low 70s but missed it. Looks like it’s swinging back again though.
34c why didn’t I wait
The problem is now I’m psyching myself into thinking she might do it.
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KLOB has surged to +600 on Bovada
Bernie -400
GOPete +450
Klob up to 12% to win!
If she gets up to like 20 I will probably max no and call it a night
Is the site horribly (minutes worth) laggy for everyone?
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I scooped up quite a bit of shares on Pete 2nd when it dropped down to 50c when Klobmentum was happening. Already back up to 67.
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Predictit has the Dems ahead in MI and PA but still losing the popular vote 38% of the time. If Predictit were fully efficient, you’d have to assume that Trump reaps the Hispanic vote and annihilates the south?
Let me stop you there…
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